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Prediction published on Nov 9, 2026 2:32 PM by Dario in Spain - Copa Del Rey | Modified on Nov 9, 2026 2:32 PM
Mijas Las Lagunas host Real Jaén in a Copa Del Rey preliminary-round match on November 10, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 19:00 local time. The home side arrive unbeaten in nine matches, although their last three have ended in draws. Real Jaén’s own five-match unbeaten run ended with a 4-3 defeat to Alcorcón on November 7. Both teams have shown they can score in recent games, but their contrasting results leave this cup meeting difficult to judge on form alone.
Mijas Las Lagunas drew 1-1 with Recreativo Huelva on November 7, extending their unbeaten sequence to nine matches. It was their third consecutive draw: a sign of how difficult they have been to beat, but also of their recent difficulty turning close games into wins.
Across their last five matches, Mijas Las Lagunas have recorded two wins and three draws, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 0.8 per game. That balance gives them a solid platform for this home fixture. Their challenge is to retain that resilience while finding the goal that has eluded them in each of their last three attempts to secure a victory.
The head-to-head figures also give the hosts encouragement. In the supplied two-match summary against Real Jaén, Mijas Las Lagunas have one win and one draw, with averages of 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. The most recent meeting finished 3-0 on January 18, 2025. Those previous results offer context, though this preliminary-round encounter will be decided by how the sides perform now.
Real Jaén travel to this match after a 4-3 loss to Alcorcón on November 7. The result brought an end to a five-match unbeaten sequence in which they had won twice and drawn three times. Scoring three goals in defeat showed their attacking potential, while conceding four underlined the defensive questions they must address against an opponent that has avoided defeat for nine games.
Over their most recent five matches, Real Jaén have taken two wins, two draws and one defeat. They have averaged 2.2 goals scored per match, compared with 2.0 conceded. Their scoring rate is higher than Mijas Las Lagunas’ over the same span, but so is their rate of goals allowed. That contrast makes this a contest between the visitors’ recent attacking output and the hosts’ steadier results.
The defeat to Alcorcón should not obscure Real Jaén’s preceding run, but it does give them an immediate test of their response. They will need to make their chances count without allowing the match to become as open as their last outing. Against a home side that has scored in its latest match and has a positive head-to-head record, defensive improvement could be particularly important.
The recent numbers point in different directions. Mijas Las Lagunas have the stronger unbeaten record and have conceded only 0.8 goals per game across their last five fixtures. Real Jaén have been more productive in front of goal over that period, averaging 2.2, but have conceded an average of 2.0. The hosts’ three straight draws and the visitors’ 4-3 defeat suggest that neither side can rely on its recent run to settle this cup tie.
The supplied win probabilities favor Real Jaén at 58%, with a draw at 23% and a Mijas Las Lagunas win at 19%. Those figures sit alongside evidence in the hosts’ favor: nine games without defeat and an unbeaten two-match head-to-head record. Rather than making the result the sole focus, the teams’ scoring and conceding figures provide another way to assess the match.
Real Jaén’s last game produced seven goals, while the latest meeting between these sides ended 3-0. Mijas Las Lagunas’ five-match averages add up to 2.4 total goals per game; Real Jaén’s add up to 4.2. Those averages do not guarantee another high-scoring fixture, particularly given the hosts’ lower goals-conceded figure, but they support the possibility of several goals if the visitors’ recent scoring rate carries into this match.
Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 52% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Mijas Las Lagunas
Real Jaén
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
1
9
3
7
2.5
5
5
5
5
3.5
5
5
7
3
4.5
9
1
7
3