Milan and Bologna will face each other twice within just a few days at the end of the season: on Friday, May 9th in the Matchday 36 opener of Serie A, and again on Wednesday, May 14th in the Coppa Italia Final. The Rossoneri, currently 9th with 57 points, come into this match off the back of a 2-1 away win against Genoa. However, they have little left to fight for in the league, sitting six points away from European qualification with only nine points still available. It's been clear for some time that Conceicao’s side can only qualify for Europe next season by winning the Coppa Italia—a trophy they haven’t lifted since the 2002/03 season and which would represent their second silverware of the year after the Italian Super Cup. For this reason, it's highly likely Milan will rotate several key players ahead of the second clash with Bologna. On top of that, Leao is suspended, and Fofana is out injured, forcing additional changes to the lineup. Bologna, on the other hand, cannot afford to focus solely on the cup final, as they remain fully in the race for a Champions League spot. After Sunday’s 1-1 draw against Juventus, they are just one point away from the top four, though competition is fierce with several teams in the mix. The Rossoblù are hoping to recover Ndoye (who scored the winner in the reverse fixture) in time for this clash. They’ve drawn their last two matches and haven’t won away at Milan in nine years. Still, they’ll be aiming to grab all three points here to climb—at least temporarily—into fourth place before the decisive rematch at the Stadio Olimpico on Wednesday night.

Milan Recent Form & Key Stats

Milan are coming into this game on a three-match winning streak: a 3-0 win in the Coppa Italia derby against Inter, and league victories away to Venezia (0-2) and Genoa (1-2). Conceicao’s men have recently improved their defensive solidity, conceding just 2 goals in their last 5 Serie A matches, while scoring 11 goals (2.2 per game).

At home, Milan have collected 28 points from 7 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses. They average 1.47 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded per game at the San Siro. Across all competitions, they’ve lost just 2 of their last 18 home matches, with 8 wins and 8 draws. In their last 3 home games in Serie A, they beat Como 2-1, drew 2-2 with Fiorentina, and lost 0-1 to Atalanta.

Bologna Recent Form & Key Stats

Bologna are unbeaten in their last four games across all competitions: wins over Inter and Empoli in the Coppa Italia, and draws against Udinese and Juventus. In their last five matches in all competitions, Orsolini and co. have both scored and conceded 4 goals (0.8 average per match). Their last defeat was a 2-0 away loss to Atalanta on April 13.

Vincenzo Italiano’s side have earned 25 of their 62 points on the road, with a record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses away from the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. They've lost just two of their last 14 away matches in all competitions, with notable 2-2 draws at both Juventus and Inter. Their away stats show an average of 1.23 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded per game.

Milan vs Bologna Prediction and Tactical Overview

Milan have a strong record at home against Bologna. The Rossoblù's last victory at San Siro dates back to January 2016. Since then, Milan have won six and drawn two of the eight home encounters. The reverse fixture this season ended 2-1 to Bologna, with goals from Castro and Ndoye overturning an early strike by Leao.

Both teams are in decent form, but Bologna seem to have lost some of their attacking spark in recent games, despite still fighting for a Champions League spot. Milan, on the other hand, have found renewed defensive stability since switching to a back three, without compromising their attacking output.

Injuries and Suspensions: Milan will be without key players Fofana (midfield) and Leao (attack), while Bologna could have Holm and Ndoye back—at least on the bench. Given Milan’s limited league objectives, Conceicao is more likely to rotate than Italiano, who will want to field his strongest lineup with the top four still within reach.

Considering past meetings and Milan's recent defensive performances, the BetMines algorithm prediction for Milan vs Bologna sees the hosts avoiding defeat.

• The BetMines algorithm prediction for Milan vs Bologna predicts the 1X sign at 65%
  
  
• The BetMines algorithm prediction for Milan vs Bologna predicts the 2 sign at 35%.

Milan vs Bologna Predicted Lineups

MILAN (3-4-2-1): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Loftus-Cheek, Reijnders, Theo Hernandez; Pulisic, Joao Felix; Gimenez. Manager: Conceicao

BOLOGNA (4-2-3-1): Skorupski; Calabria, Beukema, Casale, Lykogiannis; Freuler, Aebischer; Orsolini, Fabbian, Dominguez; Dallinga. Manager: Italiano