The fifth round of the 2026 Brazilian Serie A opens with an intriguing clash between Mirassol and Santos, scheduled for Tuesday, March 10, at 21:30 (Brasília time). The match will take place at the Estádio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia, where the home side will look to extend their impressive run of results in front of their fans. Historically, this fixture has been dominated by Santos, who have won ten of the sixteen official meetings, but Mirassol’s recent rise in Brazilian football has made this encounter far more balanced than in previous years.

Mirassol’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Mirassol enter this match sitting 10th in the Serie A standings with five points, one ahead of their opponents. Despite a modest start to the campaign, the team remains unbeaten in the league so far, recording one win and two draws. Their victory came against Vasco da Gama in the opening round, followed by draws with Remo and Cruzeiro. The side’s defensive consistency and home strength have been key factors in their early-season stability.

According to the latest data, Mirassol have not lost in their last 17 home matches in Serie A and remain unbeaten in 19 of their last 20 home games overall. This remarkable record highlights their resilience and ability to perform under pressure when playing in front of their supporters. In their last five matches across all competitions, however, Mirassol have struggled slightly, with no wins, two draws, and three defeats, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Still, their home form remains their biggest weapon.

• Average goals scored this season: 2.0


• Average goals conceded: 1.7


• Over 7.5 corners in 37 of their last 40 matches


• Over 0.5 goals at half time in 23 of their last 25 Serie A games


• Unbeaten at half time in 18 of their last 20 home matches

For this encounter, Mirassol will be without Igor Cariús and Eduardo due to injuries, while Yuri Lara is suspended. The team’s probable lineup includes Walter in goal, with João Victor and William Machado anchoring the defense. In attack, Negueba, Alesson, and Edson Carioca are expected to lead the offensive efforts. Although new signing Tiquinho Soares is yet to make his debut, the squad remains competitive and well-balanced.

Santos’ Recent Form and Key Stats

Santos arrive in Mirassol placed 13th in the table with four points, having finally secured their first win of the season in the previous round — a 2-1 victory over Vasco da Gama at Vila Belmiro. Neymar was the standout performer, scoring both goals in that match, and he is expected to start again after completing a full training cycle. Before that, Santos had endured a mixed run of results, with two defeats and one draw in their opening three fixtures.

Statistically, Santos have shown attacking potential but remain vulnerable defensively. They have scored an average of 1.5 goals per game while conceding 2.0. Away from home, their matches tend to be open and high-scoring: over 1.5 goals have been recorded in 19 of their last 20 away fixtures, and at least one goal has been conceded in 19 of those. Moreover, over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half in each of their last 15 away matches in Serie A, reflecting their tendency to produce late drama.

• Last 5 matches: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats


• Average goals scored: 2.6


• Average goals conceded: 1.2


• Over 1.5 goals in the last 15 away matches


• Lost at half time in 8 of their last 13 away games

Coach Vojvoda has no injury or suspension concerns for this match. The expected lineup features Gabriel Brazão in goal, with Igor Vinícius, Adonis Frías, Luan Peres, and Vini Lira forming the back line. Willian Arão and Gabriel Bontempo will anchor the midfield, while Neymar, Rony, and Moisés support Thaciano in attack. The Peixe will rely heavily on Neymar’s creativity and finishing to challenge Mirassol’s solid home defense.

Mirassol vs Santos Analysis and Prediction

Although Santos hold a superior historical record in this fixture, Mirassol’s home form cannot be overlooked. The Leão Caipira have built a reputation as one of the toughest home sides in the league, and their unbeaten streak at the José Maria de Campos Maia stadium is a testament to that. Santos, on the other hand, have struggled to keep clean sheets away from home, conceding in nearly every recent away match.

The last head-to-head between these sides ended 1-1 in November 2025, and their recent encounters have been closely contested. Given Mirassol’s defensive discipline and Santos’ attacking flair, this match promises to be balanced but entertaining, with both teams likely to find the net. However, the home advantage and Mirassol’s consistency at their own ground could tilt the balance slightly in their favor.

Based on the available data, the win probabilities stand at Mirassol 48%, Draw 25%, and Santos 26%. The likelihood of Both Teams To Score – Yes is 53%, while Over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance of occurring. These figures suggest a lively encounter with goals at both ends.

Probable Lineups Mirassol vs Santos

MIRASSOL (4-3-3): Walter; Igor Formiga (Daniel Borges), João Victor, William Machado, Reinaldo; Neto Moura, Aldo Filho, Lucas Mugni; Negueba, Alesson, Edson Carioca (Nathan Fogaça).
SANTOS (4-2-3-1): Gabriel Brazão; Igor Vinícius, Adonis Frías, Luan Peres, Vini Lira; Willian Arão, Gabriel Bontempo; Neymar, Rony (Miguelito), Moisés (Barreal); Thaciano (Gabigol).

Mirassol vs Santos prediction by BetMines:
The prediction favors a home win (1) for Mirassol with a 48% probability, reflecting their strong home record and Santos’ defensive fragility away from home.