The Boxing Day fixture in Serie B opens with an intriguing clash between Modena and Monza, scheduled for December 26 at 17:15. The match at the Braglia Stadium promises to be a balanced contest, with the home side slightly favored by bookmakers due to the home advantage. Both teams are among the top performers in the league, and this encounter could have significant implications for the promotion race as the season approaches its halfway point.

Modena’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Modena enter this match sitting in sixth place in Serie B, firmly within the playoff zone. Despite a recent dip in form—losing three of their last four league games—the Gialloblù remain one of the most solid defensive units in the competition. Their season record stands at 8 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per match. This defensive consistency has been a cornerstone of their campaign so far.

In their most recent outing, Modena suffered a narrow 1-2 defeat away to Venezia on December 20. Over their last five matches, they have collected just one victory, one draw, and three losses, scoring an average of 0.8 goals per game while conceding one. However, their home performances remain reliable: under 3.5 total goals have been recorded in each of their last ten home fixtures in Serie B, highlighting their disciplined and cautious approach in front of their supporters.

For this match, the return of Tonoli from suspension will be a welcome boost, while Defrel remains unavailable. The team will look to rediscover the form that kept them among the league’s best defenses and to finish 2025 on a positive note.

Monza’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Monza travel to Modena full of confidence after a commanding 4-1 home victory over Carrarese on December 20. That result ended a three-match winless run and reaffirmed their position as one of the main contenders for automatic promotion. The Biancorossi currently sit second in the Serie B table, just three points behind leaders Frosinone, with a record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats. Their season averages mirror Modena’s, with 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.

In their last five matches, Monza have registered two wins, two draws, and one defeat, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. While their attack has been effective, the team has allowed goals in each of their last four fixtures, suggesting a need for greater defensive balance. Nevertheless, Monza’s first-half performances have been impressive—they have not trailed at halftime in their last 14 league matches and have led at the break in seven of their last ten.

With promotion back to Serie A as their clear objective, Monza will aim to maintain momentum and close the gap on the top spot. Their attacking confidence, combined with a solid defensive record, makes them a formidable opponent even away from home.

Head-to-Head and Match Analysis

The historical record between Modena and Monza is limited, with their only previous meeting ending in a 0-0 draw back in August 2014. This lack of recent encounters adds an element of unpredictability to the fixture. Both sides share the distinction of having the best defensive record in Serie B, each conceding just 13 goals so far this season. Such numbers suggest a tightly contested match with few scoring opportunities.

Given Modena’s tendency to keep games low-scoring at home and Monza’s recent defensive lapses, the tactical battle is likely to revolve around control and patience rather than open attacking play. The hosts will look to capitalize on set pieces and defensive solidity, while the visitors may rely on their superior attacking rhythm to find a breakthrough. However, with both teams prioritizing structure and discipline, a high-scoring affair appears unlikely.

• Ranking: Modena 6th, Monza 2nd


• Last 5 matches: Modena (W1 D1 L3), Monza (W2 D2 L1)


• Average goals per match: Modena 1.5 scored / 0.8 conceded; Monza 1.5 scored / 0.8 conceded


• Under 3.5 goals in Modena’s last 10 home games


• Monza unbeaten at halftime in their last 14 Serie B matches

Modena vs Monza Prediction and Final Verdict

All indicators point toward a balanced and tactical contest between two of Serie B’s most organized teams. Modena’s home advantage could help them control the rhythm, but Monza’s attacking efficiency and consistency make them equally capable of securing a result. Given the defensive strength on both sides and the statistical trend of low-scoring matches, a cautious approach is expected from both managers.

According to the latest probabilities, Modena have a 42% chance of winning, the draw stands at 27%, and Monza’s chances are estimated at 32%. The likelihood of Both Teams To Score – Yes is 51%, while Under 2.5 goals remains the most probable outcome at 54%.

Modena vs Monza prediction by BetMines:
Under 2.5 goals with 54% probability.