The international friendly between Moldova and Bulgaria at Stadionul Zimbru promises to be an intriguing test for both sides as they prepare for the upcoming UEFA Nations League campaign. Neither team managed to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and this encounter serves as a valuable opportunity to rebuild confidence and assess tactical progress. The hosts have endured a long winless streak, while the visitors arrive with a more positive recent record, making this clash a potential turning point for both national teams.

Moldova’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Moldova enter this friendly in search of a long-awaited victory after a difficult run of results. Their recent 3-2 defeat away to Cyprus on March 30th extended their winless streak to 13 matches, underlining the challenges they have faced in both competitive and friendly fixtures. The team’s struggles were particularly evident during the FIFA World Cup European qualifiers, where they finished bottom of Group I with just one point and suffered a heavy 11-1 loss to Norway — a result that highlighted their defensive vulnerabilities.

In their last five matches, Moldova have recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game. Their home form has been especially concerning, with five consecutive defeats at Stadionul Zimbru and 16 goals conceded in that period. Despite these setbacks, there are signs of attacking intent, as over 0.5 goals in the second half have been scored in each of their last 11 matches, and over 1.5 total goals have been recorded in 19 of their last 20 home fixtures.

• Season stats (Friendly International): W 0 · D 0 · L 2


• Average goals scored: 1.0 · Average conceded: 2.5


• Lost at half time in 12 of their last 20 home matches


• Lost at half time in 6 of their last 10 matches overall

These numbers suggest that while Moldova often find the net, their defensive lapses continue to undermine their efforts. The home crowd will hope that this friendly marks the beginning of a turnaround before the Nations League begins in September.

Bulgaria’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Bulgaria approach this match with a more encouraging record, having shown flashes of improvement in recent months. Although they also finished bottom of their World Cup qualifying group, their campaign ended on a high with a 2-1 home win over Georgia. Since then, the team has alternated between solid performances and narrow defeats, including a 1-0 loss to Montenegro on June 1st in their most recent friendly.

Across their last five matches, Bulgaria have achieved 3 wins and 2 defeats, scoring an average of 2.6 goals per game while conceding 1.2. Their attacking output has been particularly impressive in friendly competitions, where they have averaged 3.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match this season. However, their away form remains inconsistent, with the team losing at half time in their last three away matches. Despite this, they have managed to keep things tight defensively, with under 0.5 goals scored in 4 of their last 19 away fixtures, suggesting a cautious approach on the road.

• Season stats (Friendly International): W 2 · D 0 · L 1


• Average goals scored: 3.7 · Average conceded: 1.0


• Lost at half time in last 3 away matches


• Under 0.5 goals in 4 of last 19 away matches

With three wins in their last four games, Bulgaria appear to be in better shape than their hosts. Their ability to convert chances efficiently could prove decisive against a Moldovan defense that has struggled to contain opponents in recent outings.

Moldova vs Bulgaria Tactical Overview and Prediction

This friendly encounter is expected to highlight the contrasting trajectories of the two teams. Moldova will likely focus on defensive organization and counterattacks, hoping to end their long winless streak and restore confidence ahead of competitive fixtures. Bulgaria, on the other hand, will aim to dominate possession and exploit the defensive gaps that have plagued their opponents in recent months.

Historically, Bulgaria have had the upper hand in this matchup, and their current form suggests they could extend that advantage. Moldova’s home struggles — five straight defeats and 16 goals conceded — make it difficult to envision a turnaround without significant improvement in defensive discipline. Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s attacking rhythm and recent consistency give them a clear edge heading into this contest.

According to the available probabilities, the win chances stand at Moldova 29%, Draw 25%, and Bulgaria 46%. The data also points to a relatively open game, with Over 2.5 goals favored at 52% and Both Teams To Score – Yes at 52%. These figures align with the expectation of a lively encounter where Bulgaria’s superior finishing could make the difference.

Moldova vs Bulgaria prediction by BetMines:
Bulgaria win (2) with a probability of 46%.