Thursday, November 13, at the Zimbru Stadium in Chișinău, Moldova and Italy face off in the match valid for Matchday 7 of Group I in the UEFA World Cup Qualifiers. With two games remaining in the group stage, the Azzurri have already secured second place, guaranteeing them access to the playoffs, and are looking for a win to keep their slim hopes of overtaking Norway alive, whom they will face on November 16. The hosts, bottom of Group I with just one point, have nothing left to play for in these World Cup Qualifiers. However, the Moldovan national team will try to claim their first win of the campaign, to bring some joy to their fans and make this European journey a little less bitter. Two teams, therefore, who will battle for very different reasons: the hosts to redeem a disappointing campaign so far, and the visitors to build momentum ahead of their decisive clash against Haaland and company.

Moldova's Recent Form and Key Stats

The Moldovan national team is among the least in form right now, as their last victory dates back to November 16, 2024 (0-1 away against Andorra in the UEFA Nations League). The last time they played, on October 14, they earned a good 1-1 draw in Estonia, ending a streak of five consecutive defeats.

In this qualifying campaign, Moldova have collected just one point in six matches (1 draw, 5 losses), averaging 0.67 goals scored and 4.34 conceded per game. These numbers highlight a team with clear defensive gaps—having conceded 11 goals against Norway last September—but also very limited attacking power.

Playing at home hasn’t been much of an advantage for Moldova either, as they come off three consecutive home defeats against Norway, Estonia, and Israel, scoring a total of just 2 goals and conceding an average of 4 per match.

Italy's Recent Form and Key Stats

Italy have found their rhythm under Gennaro Gattuso, stringing together five consecutive wins that allowed them to climb to second place in Group I, overtaking Israel. Their most recent victory came on October 14, when they beat the Israeli national team 3-0 thanks to a brace from Mateo Retegui and the first international goal by Gianluca Mancini.

The four-time World Champions have so far played six matches in Group I, collecting 15 points (5 wins, 1 loss) with an average of 3 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game. The attacking line is undoubtedly the strongest area: in their last four matches, the Azzurri have scored at least 3 goals in each, driven by Mateo Retegui, who has netted 5 goals in the World Cup Qualifiers.

The Italian team comes into this game after two away wins, against Israel (4-5) and Estonia (1-3), averaging 4 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game, showing a few defensive weaknesses. More generally, they have lost only one of their last seven away matches across World Cup Qualifiers and the UEFA Nations League.

Moldova vs Italy Prediction by BetMines

BetMines expects a one-sided match: Italy’s win probability stands at 69%, while a potential Moldova victory does not exceed 12%. Therefore, betting on “2” (away win) seems the most reasonable option.

The Azzurri, coming off five consecutive wins, also have history on their side, having won all five previous meetings against Moldova, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game. The first-leg match, played on June 9, ended 2-0 for Italy thanks to goals from Raspadori and Cambiaso.

Given Moldova’s well-known scoring issues, and the fact they have failed to score in three of the last four meetings with Italy, BetMines also gives the tip “both teams to score: no.” It seems very likely that the Azzurri will win without conceding.

Another recommended tip is “Over 2.5 goals,” predicting a match with at least three total goals. There are two main reasons: Italy’s last four games have all ended with this outcome, and, despite the absence of Kean due to injury, Gattuso’s men will aim to score as many goals as possible to improve their goal difference.

Probable Lineups Moldova vs Italy

MOLDOVA (5-3-1-1): Avram; Forov, Craciun, Baboglo, Platica, Reabciuk; Caimacov, Rata, Bogaciuc; Postolachi; Nicolaescu. Coach: Popescu

ITALY (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Cristante, Locatelli, Tonali; Orsolini, Retegui, Zaccagni. Coach: Gattuso