Moldova host Slovakia on Tuesday, October 6, in a UEFA Nations League meeting between the top two sides in Group C3. The match takes place at Stadionul CPTF in Chişinău, with kick-off scheduled for 18:45 local time. Slovakia lead the group after two wins and a draw, while second-placed Moldova have one win, one draw and one defeat. The visitors won the reverse fixture 2-0 on September 26, but Moldova responded with a draw and then an away victory. This rematch gives the hosts a chance to close the gap, while Slovakia will look to protect their unbeaten start.

Moldova's Recent Form and Key Stats

Moldova arrive after a 2-1 win away to Kazakhstan on October 2. Before that, they drew 1-1 with the Faroe Islands, having opened their Nations League campaign with a 2-0 defeat to Slovakia. Their three group results have produced four points and leave them three behind Tuesday's opponents.

Across Moldova's last five matches, the record is one win, three draws and one defeat. They have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over that stretch. Their Nations League averages are one goal scored and 1.3 conceded per game, so the recent victory over Kazakhstan offers encouragement without erasing the defensive concerns in the wider record.

At least one goal has been conceded by Moldova in each of their last 13 matches, and all 13 featured more than 1.5 total goals. Their home Nations League games have also consistently produced goals: the last 10 each finished with more than 1.5 goals in total. At the same time, each of Moldova's last 10 Nations League matches has stayed under 3.5 total goals. Those are different runs, but together they provide useful context for a fixture in which the hosts will be trying to improve on their scoreless display in the reverse meeting.

Another challenge for Moldova is how matches have begun. They have been behind at half-time in seven of their last 10 home matches and in nine of their last 13 matches overall. On the other hand, at least one second-half goal has been scored in 21 of their last 23 games, a reminder that the opening 45 minutes have not always settled the scoring.

Slovakia's Recent Form and Key Stats

Slovakia retained their unbeaten Group C3 record with a 1-1 draw away to the Faroe Islands on October 2. It was their first dropped points of this Nations League campaign after two victories, one of them the 2-0 home win against Moldova. With seven points from three matches, Slovakia begin this trip three points clear of their hosts.

The visitors' broader form is strong: they are unbeaten in six consecutive games, with four wins and two draws. Their last five comprise three wins and two draws, during which they have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. In this Nations League campaign, the corresponding figures are 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded per match. Both their results and those scoring averages give them a solid platform for the return fixture.

Slovakia's away record introduces a note of caution, however. They have won just one of their last eight trips, alongside one draw and six defeats. The draw with the Faroe Islands extended their overall unbeaten sequence, but it also meant another away game without a victory. Slovakia therefore travel with a clear advantage in the group standings and the recent head-to-head result, rather than an established run of away wins.

Moldova vs Slovakia Match Analysis

The first meeting is an important reference point for this Moldova vs Slovakia preview. Slovakia won 2-0, leaving Moldova with no goals from the sides' only head-to-head match listed in the supplied record. Moldova have since taken four points from two games, including the win in Kazakhstan, while Slovakia have remained unbeaten despite dropping points on their latest trip.

There is a contrast between the teams' overall trajectories and their away and home records. Slovakia have the stronger five-match return, with three wins to Moldova's one, and have conceded fewer goals per game over that period. Yet their single victory in eight away matches makes a repeat of the first meeting far from automatic. Moldova, meanwhile, can take encouragement from having gone unbeaten in their last three home Nations League games, winning two and drawing one.

The scoring statistics also call for a measured reading. Moldova's long run of matches with more than 1.5 total goals points to chances of goals in this fixture, but their last 10 Nations League matches have all finished under 3.5. Slovakia kept Moldova scoreless in September, although Moldova have scored in both group games since. Rather than relying on one scoring trend, the key question is whether Moldova's improvement after the reverse fixture is enough to overcome Slovakia's more consistent recent results.

Slovakia's unbeaten run and three-point lead make them the stronger side on the available form, while their away results and Moldova's recent response leave room for a competitive match. A draw would preserve Slovakia's lead over Moldova; a victory for either side would make this top-two meeting more decisive.

Moldova vs Slovakia prediction from BetMines: Draw or Slovakia (X2) with 79% probability.