Montenegro host Latvia on November 12 in a UEFA Nations League match that could settle the hosts’ promotion to League B. Montenegro lead the group with 10 points after four games, while Latvia are fourth with one point and still seeking their first win of the campaign. The contrast in results is clear, but their most recent meeting offers a reminder that Montenegro cannot take the occasion lightly: Latvia scored against them in that match. With two group fixtures remaining, the home side have an opportunity to turn their three-point lead into a decisive advantage.

Montenegro’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Montenegro dropped points for the first time in this Nations League campaign when they drew 0-0 with Armenia on October 5. That result ended their run of three consecutive group wins, but left them unbeaten and top of the standings with a record of three wins and one draw. They have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match in the competition, giving them a solid foundation ahead of Latvia’s visit.

Their broader recent form is also encouraging. Across their last five matches, Montenegro have recorded three wins and two draws, scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding 1.2. The goalless draw with Armenia showed that a breakthrough is not guaranteed, yet it did little to change their position in the group. A victory against Latvia could secure promotion to League B with one game still to play.

Previous meetings give Montenegro another reason for confidence. They are unbeaten in five matches against Latvia, with three wins and two draws. Across those encounters, they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. The latest head-to-head match finished 1-2 on October 2, and Montenegro’s overall record in this fixture remains one of the strongest indicators in their favour.

Latvia’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Latvia arrive after a 2-1 defeat to Cyprus on October 5. Their four Nations League matches have produced one draw and three losses, with averages of 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Their only group point came from a 0-0 draw with Cyprus on matchday two, leaving them with little margin for error as they seek to move off the bottom of the standings.

The difficulty extends beyond this group campaign. Latvia have taken one draw and four defeats from their last five matches, scoring just 0.4 goals per game while conceding 1.4. Over their last six fixtures, they have managed two draws and four defeats. They have also won only three of their last 20 matches overall and two of their last 20 away matches, making this trip a demanding test against the group leaders.

There has at least been a modest change in Latvia’s attacking returns: they scored in their last two games after failing to find the net in their first two group fixtures. One of those goals came against Montenegro, so the visitors have evidence that they can create a scoring moment in this matchup. Even so, their longer-running Nations League trends point towards restrained scorelines: each of Latvia’s last 11 matches in the competition has featured under 3.5 total goals, and all 11 have had under 1.5 goals in the first half. Latvia have also failed to win at half-time in 21 of their last 22 matches.

Montenegro vs Latvia Match Analysis

The central question is whether Montenegro can convert their group lead and unbeaten head-to-head record into another win. Their three victories in four Nations League games contrast with Latvia’s winless start, while the gap between the teams’ recent scoring averages adds weight to the hosts’ case. Montenegro’s draw with Armenia is a caution against assuming they will score freely, but they have consistently found ways to collect points.

Latvia have shown some improvement in front of goal, including scoring in the latest meeting between these sides. That gives them a route into the contest, although their limited away wins and recent run without a victory underline the scale of the task. The supplied win probabilities put Montenegro at 63%, the draw at 21% and Latvia at 16%. Taken alongside the group records and five-match head-to-head sequence, the strongest case is for the hosts to claim the result they need, even if Latvia make them work for it.

Montenegro vs Latvia prediction from BetMines: Montenegro win (1) with 63% probability.