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Prediction published on Aug 12, 2026 7:02 PM by Dario in Italy - Coppa Italia | Modified on Aug 12, 2026 7:02 PM
Monza and Avellino meet in the first round of the Coppa Italia on Friday, August 14, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 20:45. This will be the first competitive assignment of the season for two teams whose summer matches produced plenty of goals. Monza enter the tie while still undergoing significant changes, whereas Avellino approach it with confidence after strengthening a squad that reached the Serie B playoffs last season. The winner will progress to face either Carrarese or Torino in the next round. Recent results suggest an open contest: both sides have recorded three wins, one draw and one defeat across their last five matches, while each has averaged more than two goals scored per game during that sequence.
Monza are still adapting after a change in technical leadership. Following the disagreements involving Bianco, responsibility for the team was handed to Juric. The Croatian coach has already shown a desire to create an attack-minded side, but the performances described during the summer also revealed considerable defensive vulnerability. That combination has made Monza entertaining while leaving them exposed whenever opponents find space.
Their latest recorded match underlined both sides of that picture, as Monza drew 3-3 with Calcio Padova on August 7. Across their last five games, the team collected three victories, one draw and one defeat. They scored an average of 2.8 goals per match, but also conceded 2.2. Those numbers highlight a productive attack and a back line that has struggled to keep matches under control.
A victory over Galatasaray provided an important confidence boost, although the available information also describes the squad as incomplete. Juric is still waiting for further additions, and the current group faces a difficult challenge in trying to remain in the top division following last season’s campaign. Even so, the attacking department appears to be developing more quickly than the defensive unit, giving Monza a clear route to creating chances in this cup tie.
Second-half action has also been a regular feature of their games. At least one goal was scored after the interval in 26 of Monza’s last 29 matches. That sequence suggests that the contest may continue to change as it progresses, particularly if the opening stages expose the same defensive issues seen during the summer.
Avellino arrive as a Serie B side with reasons to believe they can make an impact in the Coppa Italia. After reaching the playoffs as a newly promoted team last season, they reinforced the squad during the summer. Martinelli and Faticanti are presented as young additions capable of bringing extra value, while attacker Fila offers another option in the final third.
Their summer results have reinforced that optimism. The only two defeats mentioned came against Serie A opposition: a goal-filled 6-3 loss to Lazio and a match against Torino that was lost only on penalties. Avellino scored three times against Lazio, demonstrating that their attackers can create problems even when facing a club from the higher division.
The most recent recorded result was a 1-1 draw against Torino on August 8. Like Monza, Avellino have produced three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five fixtures. Their attacking average is even higher at 3.0 goals scored per match, alongside an average of 1.8 conceded. This balance between strong production and regular concessions points towards a side that is comfortable participating in open games rather than relying exclusively on defensive control.
Avellino therefore have a credible opportunity to make this first-round tie competitive. Although there is a divisional difference between the teams, their recent scoring output and their performances against top-flight opposition indicate that they should not approach the match without ambition. If Monza again leave gaps defensively, the visitors have shown enough attacking quality to take advantage.
The recent numbers create an intriguing backdrop to this Coppa Italia fixture. Monza and Avellino have identical records across their last five matches, but neither side has paired its attacking strength with consistently secure defending. Monza’s games during that period averaged 2.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded by the team, while Avellino registered averages of 3.0 scored and 1.8 allowed. The statistics consequently point to two productive attacks facing defensive units that have regularly given up opportunities.
Monza’s status as the higher-division side gives them an important competitive edge, and the available win figures place them at 52%, compared with 26% for a draw and 21% for Avellino. However, this does not remove the risks surrounding the hosts. Juric’s team remains a work in progress, and the 3-3 draw with Calcio Padova showed how quickly an apparently promising attacking performance can become complicated by defensive instability.
Avellino, meanwhile, have the profile of a possible cup surprise. Their strengthened squad, last season’s playoff achievement and ability to score three goals against Lazio all provide encouragement. The visitors will nevertheless need to manage Monza’s attacking threat, which has been producing goals at a high rate. Their own average of 1.8 goals conceded across the last five matches suggests that shutting down the hosts completely may be difficult.
The head-to-head record is notably balanced. The summary lists
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Monza
Avellino
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
1
9
1
9
2.5
3
7
2
8
3.5
4
6
5
5
4.5
5
5
7
3