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Prediction published on Oct 26, 2026 8:09 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Oct 26, 2026 8:09 PM
Monza host Napoli at the U-Power Stadium on October 28 in Serie A. Both sides arrive needing a more consistent run of results: Monza sit 15th after five defeats in eight league games, while Napoli are 10th with three wins, two draws and three losses. The visitors drew 3-3 with Roma in their most recent league match, and Monza lost 3-2 to Torino. Those scorelines set the scene for a meeting between teams that have been finding goals but also conceding regularly. With Napoli four points ahead of their hosts, this fixture offers both clubs a chance to improve their position.
Monza have taken one win and one draw from their last five matches, losing the other three. They have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded across that stretch. Their Serie A record stands at two wins, one draw and five defeats, with averages of 1.9 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game. The attacking numbers suggest Monza can pose a threat, but the goals against them help explain why victories have been difficult to sustain.
The 3-2 defeat to Torino illustrated both sides of that picture. Varela scored his seventh league goal in the match, continuing to give Monza a reliable source of goals even though they could not avoid defeat. The wider scoring trend is notable too: Monza have found the net in 20 of their last 21 matches. Their games have also frequently produced second-half action, with at least one goal after the break in 35 of the last 39.
Juric's side will look to make more of that attacking output at home. Monza have already shown they can win convincingly, beating Cagliari 4-0, but their latest five-match record underlines the challenge of turning goals into points. Against Napoli, limiting chances at the other end may be just as important as maintaining their own scoring run.
Napoli travel to Monza after a 3-3 draw with Roma on October 24. McTominay scored twice in that match, while De Bruyne has been used in midfield as Napoli search for greater balance. The Roma result followed a Champions League victory, offering signs of improvement after an earlier defeat to Venezia, but Napoli still need to turn that response into league wins.
Their last five matches have brought two wins, one draw and two defeats. Like Monza, Napoli have averaged 2.2 goals scored over those games; they have also conceded 2.0 per match. Their Serie A averages are lower at 1.6 scored and 1.3 conceded, so the recent run has been considerably more open than their season-long figures. The six-goal draw with Roma was a striking example of that shift.
Selection is another consideration for Allegri, who is suspended for this match after his dismissal against Roma. Badiashile's condition needs checking following a muscular problem in that game, while Buongiorno, Favasuli, David Neres and Alisson Santos are listed as unavailable. Anguissa has started twice since a lengthy absence, with Lobotka mentioned as a possible midfield alternative. Napoli also have an away match against Juventus scheduled for the following round, but first must address a Monza side with a strong recent scoring record.
The reported probable Monza lineup is Tornqvist; Kouadio, Goglichidze, Carboni; Birindelli, Akinsamiro, Folorunsho, Mangas; Mota, Robinson; Varela. Juric is expected to retain a 3-4-2-1 shape.
For Napoli, the reported probable 4-3-3 lineup is Milinkovic Savic; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Rafa Marin, Olivera; De Bruyne, Lobotka, McTominay; Politano, Hojlund, Lang. These selections remain provisional, particularly given the questions around Napoli's availability and midfield choices.
Napoli have had the better of the recent meetings: across the last five head-to-head matches, they have won three, drawn one and lost one against Monza. The latest ended 1-0 to Napoli on April 19, 2025. That record gives the visitors encouragement, although it does not erase the contrast between their recent attacking output and the two goals per match they have conceded over their last five outings.
For Monza, the clearest route into this game is the scoring consistency reflected in their 20 goalscoring matches from the last 21. Napoli have threats of their own, with McTominay's double against Roma the freshest example, yet Monza's recent goals-against average suggests the visitors should also find opportunities. The key question is whether either team can show more defensive control than they have in their latest results. With both averaging 2.2 goals scored across their last five matches, this Serie A preview points to chances at both ends rather than a straightforward contest for either side.
Monza vs Napoli prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 58% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Monza
Napoli
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
1
9
3
7
2.5
2
8
4
6
3.5
3
7
6
4
4.5
6
4
7
3