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Prediction published on Sep 16, 2026 5:04 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Sep 16, 2026 5:04 PM
Monza host Sassuolo in Serie A on Friday, September 18, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 18:45 at the U-Power Stadium. The home side enter the fixture still searching for their first league victory after collecting one point from four matches, while Sassuolo have made a much stronger start with two wins, one draw and one defeat. Monza are 18th in the Serie A rankings and Sassuolo are ninth, leaving the hosts under pressure to respond after another high-scoring loss. Both clubs have regularly found the net but also conceded during the opening weeks, creating the conditions for an open encounter in Monza.
Monza have recorded no wins, one draw and three defeats in their first four Serie A games. Their only point came from a 1-1 away draw against Parma, and they were beaten 3-2 by Lecce on September 13. Monza fell two goals behind inside the opening 12 minutes of that match and spent the remainder of the contest attempting to recover. Although they scored twice, their defensive problems prevented them from completing the comeback.
Across their last five matches, Monza have registered one victory, one draw and three defeats, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 2.2 per game. Their league figures are even more striking: they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 2.8 conceded. With 11 league goals allowed already, defensive stability is the most obvious issue facing the home team.
Monza's previous home record in Serie B offers some encouragement. They lost only one of 19 home league fixtures last season, collecting 14 victories and four draws. However, their recent Serie A home sequence is far less positive, with the club trying to avoid a sixth consecutive home defeat in the top division. That contrast makes this game an important test of whether their former home strength can translate to the current campaign.
There are also personnel concerns for Monza. Captain Matteo Pessina, Jan Ziolkowski and Idrissa Touré are unavailable, while Patrick Ciurria, Cyril Ngonge and Ricardo Mangas are doubtful. One encouraging development is the return of Gustavo Varela, the only Monza player to have scored more than once in the league this season. Patrick Cutrone and Dany Mota are among the experienced attacking options competing to support him.
Sassuolo arrive after a dramatic 3-2 victory over Juventus on September 13. Sebastiano Esposito scored on his first start, while Kieron Bowie also put Sassuolo ahead during the contest. After Juventus equalised in added time, Vasilije Adzic struck the decisive goal at the end to secure all three points.
That result extended Sassuolo's unbeaten run across all competitions to four matches. Their last five games have produced two wins, two draws and one defeat, with averages of 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. In Serie A, they have won twice, drawn once and lost once while averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.8 against per fixture. These numbers highlight both their attacking productivity and their continued vulnerability without the ball.
Sassuolo have not kept a clean sheet this season and remain without an away league victory, having taken one draw and one defeat from their two trips. Their longer winless away sequence stretches back to February and consists of three draws and five losses. As a result, their superior start does not automatically guarantee control of this fixture, particularly against opponents desperate to earn their first victory.
The visitors also have several absentees. Fali Cande, Edoardo Pieragnolo and Ismael Kone are long-term omissions, while Jay Idzes, Daniel Boloca and Cristian Volpato are unavailable. Sebastian Walukiewicz is doubtful. In attack, Esposito faces competition from Bowie following their contributions against Juventus, with the experienced Domenico Berardi available to provide support.
The most significant theme surrounding this Serie A match is the combination of regular scoring and fragile defending. Monza and Sassuolo have both scored and conceded at least once in each of their opening four league fixtures. Monza's latest game ended in a 3-2 defeat, while Sassuolo's most recent appearance produced a 3-2 victory. Those results underline how quickly matches involving these teams can become stretched and eventful.
The recent numbers also suggest that both sides should have opportunities. Monza are averaging 1.5 goals per league match despite their winless start, but their average of 2.8 conceded has repeatedly left them chasing games. Sassuolo's league average of two goals scored gives the visitors a clear attacking threat, although conceding 1.8 per match and failing to record a clean sheet means they have offered opponents chances as well.
Monza's historical head-to-head record provides some encouragement, and the win probabilities give the hosts a 46% chance compared with 27% for the draw and 27% for Sassuolo. Nevertheless, the home team's defensive record makes a comfortable outcome difficult to expect. Sassuolo are in better league form and possess stronger scoring averages, but their lack of clean sheets and prolonged wait for an away victory prevent the visitors from looking secure.
With Monza needing points and Sassuolo carrying momentum from their five-goal contest against Juventus, neither side has a clear statistical basis for relying solely on defensive control. The 55% probability for both teams to score is supported by their first four league matches, their respective scoring averages and the 2-2 result in the latest head-to-head encounter.
Monza vs Sassuolo prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 55% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Monza
Sassuolo
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
1
9
1
9
2.5
3
7
2
8
3.5
4
6
5
5
4.5
5
5
6
4