Moreirense host Marítimo in Liga Portugal on September 14, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 19:15 at the Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. The home side enter the fixture in 13th place, while the visitors are eighth. Only three points separate their season records: Moreirense have collected one win and one draw from five matches, whereas Marítimo have recorded two victories and one draw. Both teams are also looking to respond after heavy defeats against Benfica. Moreirense lost 4-0 on September 9, four days after Marítimo were beaten 3-0 by the same opponents. The available probabilities indicate a competitive contest, giving Marítimo a narrow advantage but leaving the home win and draw firmly in contention.

Moreirense Recent Form and Key Statistics

Moreirense have produced one win, one draw and three defeats across their last five matches. That sequence is identical to their overall Liga Portugal record this season, placing them 13th in the standings ahead of this home fixture. Their latest result was a 4-0 defeat against Benfica, a scoreline that increased the importance of delivering an improved performance against Marítimo.

The home team have averaged 0.8 goals scored per match and 2.4 conceded during the five-game period. Those figures are also their Liga Portugal season averages. The difference between the two numbers highlights the main issue in their current results: Moreirense have scored at a rate below one goal per game while allowing more than two at the other end.

With three losses in five league matches, Moreirense need to change the pattern that has shaped their start. The chance to play at home offers them an opportunity to respond, although the supplied win probabilities underline how open the contest remains rather than identifying a clear favorite. Moreirense are assigned a 34% chance of winning, compared with 27% for the draw and 39% for an away victory.

Marítimo Recent Form and Key Statistics

Marítimo arrive in eighth place after registering two wins, one draw and two defeats in five Liga Portugal games. Their record is stronger than Moreirense’s over the same number of matches, although their most recent outing also ended in a clear defeat. Marítimo lost 3-0 against Benfica on September 5 and now head into this away fixture seeking a response.

The visitors have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game across their last five matches. Their season statistics show the same averages. Compared with Moreirense, Marítimo have scored 0.4 more goals per match and conceded 0.8 fewer, giving them the better statistical balance before kick-off.

Those numbers contribute to Marítimo receiving the largest individual share of the match-result probabilities. An away win is rated at 39%, but that figure remains close to Moreirense’s 34%. Marítimo therefore hold only a narrow numerical edge, and their two defeats from five games show that their current record has included setbacks as well as positive results.

• Marítimo’s last five matches: two wins, one draw and two defeats.
• Average goals scored: 1.2 per match.
• Average goals conceded: 1.6 per match.
• Latest result: a 3-0 defeat against Benfica.

Moreirense vs Marítimo Match Analysis

The recent numbers create a mixed picture for this Liga Portugal meeting. Marítimo have the stronger win-loss record and the better scoring and conceding averages, but the difference in the 1X2 probabilities is limited. The visitors’ 39% chance of winning is followed by 34% for Moreirense and 27% for the draw, meaning none of the three outcomes carries an outright probability above 50%.

Goals provide another important angle. Moreirense’s league matches currently combine an average of 3.2 goals when their scoring and conceding rates are considered together, while Marítimo’s corresponding combined average is 2.8. Both figures are above the two-goal mark, largely because each side has conceded more frequently than it has scored. However, the supplied Over/Under 2.5 assessment remains finely balanced: Under 2.5 goals is rated at 53%, with Over 2.5 at 47%.

The Both Teams To Score market is even closer. “Yes” has a probability of 51%, only two percentage points ahead of “No” at 49%. This small margin suggests that the available data does not provide a decisive indication that both attacks will score. Moreirense’s average of 0.8 goals and Marítimo’s average of 1.2 nevertheless leave room for goal opportunities, particularly when viewed alongside defensive averages of 2.4 and 1.6 respectively.

The head-to-head information offers a contrasting historical element. The supplied summary for Moreirense vs Marítimo records three Moreirense wins, one draw and one defeat, with Moreirense averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in that sample. Despite that favorable overall summary for the hosts, the most recent meeting finished 0-1 on March 6, 2022.

Taking the full set of statistics together, Marítimo enter with a slight results-based advantage, while Moreirense hold the stronger record in the provided head-to-head summary. The clearest probability among the available goal markets is for the match to produce at least two goals. That outlook is consistent with the teams’ combined scoring and conceding averages, even though the data is less certain about whether the game will move beyond 2.5 goals or feature goals from both sides.

Moreirense vs Marítimo prediction from BetMines: Over 1.5 goals with 72% probability.