Tools
Prediction published on Aug 18, 2026 6:08 PM by Dario in Europe - Europa Conference League | Modified on Aug 18, 2026 6:08 PM
Motherwell welcome SC Freiburg to Fir Park on August 20, 2026, for the first leg of their Europa Conference League play-off. Kick-off is scheduled for 18:30 local time. The hosts enter this European fixture unbeaten across their last five matches, while Freiburg arrive after recording three victories and two defeats over the same span. Motherwell have already played four qualifying games in the competition, winning three and drawing one, whereas this will be Freiburg’s first competitive match following five preseason fixtures. With a place in the league phase at stake, the opening leg brings together Motherwell’s strong qualifying record and a Freiburg side whose recent matches have regularly produced goals.
Motherwell have made an impressive start to their Europa Conference League campaign. Their four qualifying matches have delivered three wins and one draw, with the team averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.3 conceded per game in the competition. The only match they failed to win was a 1-1 draw with HJK Helsinki in the first leg of the third qualifying round.
The Steelmen responded decisively in the return fixture, defeating HJK Helsinki 2-0 to complete a 3-1 aggregate victory and book their place in the play-offs. That result also continued their scoring run in Europe, as Motherwell found the net in each of their four Europa Conference League qualifiers. Their combination of consistent attacking production and a low concession average has provided the platform for a productive qualifying campaign.
Motherwell’s latest match ended in a 0-0 draw against Stenhousemuir on August 16. Across their last five games, they have registered two wins and three draws, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding only 0.4 per match. Those figures underline their recent stability, although the goalless result against Stenhousemuir also shows that converting control into goals cannot be taken for granted.
The hosts have also avoided being behind at half-time in each of their last 13 matches. That sequence could be particularly valuable in a first leg, where maintaining a competitive position through the opening period may allow them to approach the latter stages with confidence. Only three of Motherwell’s last 15 games ended without a goal, while two of their previous 10 home matches finished goalless.
SC Freiburg return to competitive action after navigating five preseason games with four victories and one defeat. Their most recent recorded fixture was a 2-0 win against Strasbourg on August 8. Over their last five matches, Freiburg have collected three wins and suffered two defeats, averaging an imposing 2.2 goals scored per game alongside 1.6 conceded.
The visitors were last involved in European competition three months earlier, when they lost 3-0 to Aston Villa in the Europa League final. They now begin a Europa Conference League campaign that offers another opportunity to compete on the continental stage. The ranking information supplied for this tie places Freiburg first and Motherwell second in the Europa Conference League comparison.
Freiburg’s recent scoring numbers make them a significant threat, but their defensive record in Europe presents a point of concern. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four European matches, and both teams scored in three of those encounters. That pattern is especially relevant against a Motherwell side that has scored in every one of its four qualifying games this season.
Goals have been a recurring feature of Freiburg’s broader match record as well. Each of their last 10 matches produced over 1.5 total goals, while all of their previous 16 games featured at least one second-half goal. These sequences indicate that their fixtures have continued to develop after the break, rather than consistently being settled by cautious or low-event second halves.
The first-leg context creates a contrast between Motherwell’s defensive efficiency in this season’s qualifiers and Freiburg’s more open recent numbers. The hosts have conceded only 0.3 goals per Europa Conference League match, yet they now face a visiting team averaging 2.2 goals across its last five fixtures. At the other end, Motherwell’s record of scoring in every qualifier gives them a credible route to troubling a Freiburg defence that has gone four European games without a clean sheet.
The statistical probabilities reflect a closely balanced set of potential outcomes. Motherwell are assigned a 46% chance of winning, compared with 25% for the draw and 29% for an SC Freiburg victory. However, the available decimal odds make Freiburg the market favourite at 1.38, with Motherwell at 6.50 and the draw at 4.50. This contrast adds uncertainty to the result market and makes the goals evidence particularly important when assessing the fixture.
Both the BTTS and over 2.5-goal options carry a 53% statistical probability. The strongest direct support comes from the scoring records of the two teams: Motherwell have struck in all four European qualifiers, while Freiburg have averaged more than two goals across their last five matches. Freiburg’s failure to register a clean sheet in four consecutive European appearances further strengthens the possibility that the hosts can contribute.
Motherwell’s recent defensive figures suggest Freiburg may need patience, especially as the home side have not trailed at half-time in 13 matches. Nevertheless, Freiburg’s sequence of 16 straight games with a second-half goal means the contest may become more expansive as it progresses. With Motherwell carrying an unbeaten five-match run and Freiburg bringing stronger recent scoring averages but less reassuring defensive numbers, the evidence points toward opportunities at both ends of the pitch.
Motherwell vs SC Freiburg prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 53% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Motherwell
SC Freiburg
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
0
10
1.5
3
7
1
9
2.5
5
5
2
8
3.5
7
3
3
7
4.5
8
2
5
5