MVV Maastricht host Excelsior in the first round of the KNVB Beker on October 28, 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 local time at De Geusselt. Both teams enter the cup tie after a difficult run of results. MVV ended a three-match losing streak with a 2-2 draw against FC Den Bosch, while Excelsior have lost their last three matches. Their most recent head-to-head meeting, on April 4, 2025, ended in a 2-1 Excelsior victory. Recent form gives neither side a comfortable platform, making the contrast between MVV’s defensive record and Excelsior’s scoring struggles a central feature of this match preview.

MVV Maastricht’s Recent Form and Key Stats

MVV Maastricht took a point from their October 23 match against FC Den Bosch, drawing 2-2 after three consecutive defeats. Across their last five games, they have recorded one win, one draw and three losses, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 2.4 per match. The draw stopped the losing run, but the two goals conceded also reflected an issue that has persisted over a longer stretch: MVV have scored 16 goals and conceded 27 in the Eerste Divisie.

The first half has been particularly difficult for MVV recently. They have trailed at half-time in each of their last three matches, a pattern they will want to break against Excelsior. Their home games also offer a clear timing trend: at least one second-half goal has been scored in 18 of their last 20 home matches. That figure refers to goals by either team, rather than MVV goals alone, but it shows how frequently the score has changed after the interval in their home fixtures.

Olivier Dumont is MVV’s leading scorer with five goals. He has not scored in the team’s last four matches, leaving the hosts looking for a contribution from their top scorer as they turn their attention to the cup. MVV’s recent results show they can find the net—the draw with FC Den Bosch was their latest example—but reducing the number of chances converted by opponents remains just as important to their prospects in this tie.

Excelsior’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Excelsior also arrive seeking a change in results. After a good start in the Eredivisie, they have collected only two points from their last six matches and have lost the most recent three. Their latest outing was a 1-0 defeat to Fortuna Sittard on October 25. The last five matches have brought no wins, one draw and four defeats, with averages of 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per game.

That run includes a 5-1 loss against FC Groningen and a 4-0 defeat against SC Heerenveen. Those results underline why Excelsior cannot rely solely on their previous success against MVV: their recent defensive record has left them needing to score while limiting openings at the other end. The cup meeting gives them an opportunity to respond, but the figures from their last five matches show how much their results have slipped.

Three players share the lead in Excelsior’s scoring list. Aymen Sliti, David Garden and Irakli Yegoian have each scored three goals, with Yegoian the most recent of the trio to find the net. His goal was Excelsior’s only one in the 5-1 defeat to FC Groningen. Recent matches also point to action on both sides of the interval: at least one first-half goal has been scored in 22 of Excelsior’s last 24 matches, while at least one second-half goal has featured in each of their last 11 games and each of their last 12 away matches. These are total match-goal trends, not goals scored by Excelsior alone.

MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior Match Analysis

The head-to-head record offers Excelsior encouragement despite their current form. From MVV’s perspective, the supplied record against Excelsior stands at no wins, one draw and four defeats, with averages of 1.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded. Excelsior won the latest meeting 2-1, but both sides’ more recent performances make it difficult to treat that result as a complete guide to this KNVB Beker fixture.

MVV have a stronger return over the last five matches, with one win compared with Excelsior’s none, although both teams have conceded frequently in that span. The hosts’ 2-2 draw with FC Den Bosch showed an ability to recover a point after three losses; Excelsior, meanwhile, have been unable to halt their own run of defeats. MVV’s home advantage and Excelsior’s head-to-head record provide different reasons for confidence, without removing the concerns raised by either team’s defensive numbers.

The opening 45 minutes could be especially significant. MVV have gone into half-time behind in three straight matches, and Excelsior’s games have featured a first-half goal in 22 of the last 24. Those separate trends do not identify which team would score first, but they do suggest that an early breakthrough is a relevant possibility. The second-half figures add another consideration: late goals have appeared regularly in both MVV’s home matches and Excelsior’s away fixtures. For this cup tie, the clearest statistical theme is therefore not a guaranteed winner, but the frequency with which these teams’ recent games have produced goals at different stages.

MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior prediction from BetMines: Over 0.5 goals at Half-Time with 86% probability.