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Prediction published on Apr 23, 2026 8:01 PM by Dario in Netherlands - Eredivisie | Modified on Apr 23, 2026 8:01 PM
The VriendenLoterij Eredivisie continues with an intriguing clash as NAC Breda host Ajax on April 25, 2026, in the 31st round of the season. The two sides enter this match with very different ambitions: NAC are fighting to escape the lower end of the table, while Ajax aim to consolidate their position among the top teams. Despite the gap in quality and ranking, NAC have shown on several occasions that they can cause problems for stronger opponents, especially at home.
NAC Breda approach this fixture in inconsistent form. Their last two matches ended in draws, including a 1-1 result against Fortuna Sittard on April 12, 2026. Over their last five games, NAC have recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 2.4 conceded per match. These numbers highlight defensive fragility, something that was evident in their heavy 6-0 loss to Go Ahead Eagles earlier in the campaign.
Across the season, NAC’s record stands at 5 wins, 10 draws, and 15 losses, with an average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Despite these struggles, the team has managed to hold its own against top sides, drawing 3-3 with Feyenoord and 2-2 with PSV Eindhoven earlier this season. Such results show that, on their best day, NAC can be a difficult opponent to break down.
At home, the Rat Verlegh Stadion has occasionally provided the spark NAC need to compete. The team often relies on a physical and compact approach, aiming to disrupt the rhythm of technically superior opponents. Against Ajax, this strategy could once again be their best chance to secure a positive result.
Ajax come into this game with mixed results but remain one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the league. Their most recent outing was a convincing 0-3 victory over Heracles Almelo on April 11, 2026. Over their last five matches, Ajax have achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their season record of 13 wins, 12 draws, and 5 losses reflects a team that has struggled to convert dominance into consistent victories.
Ajax’s attacking consistency remains impressive: they have scored in 20 of their last 21 Eredivisie matches, and Over 1.5 goals have been recorded in 29 of their last 30 league fixtures. Away from home, they continue to entertain, with Over 1.5 goals in 20 of their last 21 away matches. They also tend to start strong, having not lost at half time in their last 17 league games and winning the first half in 10 of their last 15.
Despite their attacking firepower, Ajax’s inability to close out matches has cost them valuable points. Draws against Feyenoord, NEC, and AZ have frustrated their supporters, though their recent win at Heracles suggests a potential return to form. Against NAC, Ajax are expected to dominate possession and press high from the start, seeking an early goal to silence the home crowd.
This encounter promises to be a fascinating contrast of styles. NAC Breda will likely focus on defensive organization and physical duels, aiming to frustrate Ajax’s rhythm and exploit counterattacking opportunities. Their ability to turn the match into a scrappy battle could determine how long they stay competitive.
Ajax, on the other hand, are expected to control possession and push forward aggressively. Their attacking statistics suggest that goals are almost guaranteed when they play, especially considering the defensive record of NAC. The visitors’ challenge will be maintaining concentration and avoiding the lapses that have cost them points throughout the season.
Historically, Ajax have dominated this fixture, winning four of the last five meetings and averaging 2.8 goals scored per game against NAC. However, NAC’s resilience at home and Ajax’s occasional inconsistency could make this a more balanced contest than the table suggests.
Based on the data and recent performances, this match is expected to deliver goals. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring encounters recently, and Ajax’s attacking form combined with NAC’s defensive vulnerabilities point towards another open game.
NAC Breda vs Ajax prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 55% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
NAC Breda
Ajax
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
2
8
2
8
2.5
6
4
4
6
3.5
8
2
7
3
4.5
8
2
10
0