The final day of Ligue 1 brings an emotional clash between FC Nantes and Toulouse FC, scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026, at 21:00. For the home side, this match marks the end of a difficult season that will see them relegated to Ligue 2. The Canaries have struggled for consistency throughout the campaign and now face the challenge of finishing on a positive note in front of their supporters at the Stade de la Beaujoire. On the other hand, Toulouse arrive with a completely different mindset, aiming to close their season inside the top half of the table after a solid run of results in recent weeks.

FC Nantes: A Season to Forget

It has been a long and frustrating season for Nantes, who have been stuck in the relegation zone for months. With only five wins in 33 league matches (5W, 8D, 20L), their fate was sealed before the final round. The team’s struggles in front of goal have been evident, averaging just 0.9 goals scored per game while conceding 1.6. Their most recent outing ended in a 1-0 defeat against Lens on May 8, confirming their inability to turn performances into points.

In their last five matches, Nantes have managed just one win, one draw, and three defeats, scoring an average of 1.0 goal per game and conceding 1.4. The lack of attacking efficiency has been a recurring issue, with Under 0.5 goals recorded in two of their last ten Ligue 1 fixtures. Despite the disappointment, the team will try to give their fans something to cheer about in this farewell match before heading to Ligue 2.

Several absences complicate the task for Nantes, including Alexis Mirbach, Kelvin Amian, Fabien Centonze, Tylel Tati, Deiver Machado, and Bahmed Deuff. Francis Coquelin remains doubtful. Even so, some key players are expected to feature, such as Anthony Lopes in goal, Nicolas Cozza and Frédéric Guilbert in defense, and Johann Lepenant in midfield. Up front, Matthis Abline could be one to watch as he looks to end the season on a high note.

Toulouse FC: Finishing Strong

Toulouse approach this final round in much better form and with clear motivation. Sitting 10th in the table, they are just one point behind ninth-placed Lorient and could still climb into the top half with a win. The team has shown resilience in recent weeks, bouncing back from a rough patch that included three consecutive defeats and a cup elimination. Since then, they have drawn 2-2 with Monaco and secured back-to-back victories against Strasbourg (2-1) and Lyon (2-1).

Across their last five matches, Toulouse have recorded two wins, one draw, and two defeats, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Over the course of the season, they have maintained a balanced record (12W, 8D, 13L) with 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. Their attacking play has been particularly effective lately, with Yann Gboho contributing eight goals and three assists this season. Although he has not scored in the last two months, he remains a key figure in the final third. Santiago Hidalgo has also been decisive, involved in three of the team’s last five goals.

For this encounter, Rafik Messali and Frank Magri are unavailable, but the rest of the squad is expected to line up in a familiar setup. Guillaume Restes should start in goal, supported by Charlie Cresswell and Rasmus Nicolaisen in defense. In midfield, Cristian Cásseres Jr will likely play a central role, providing balance and creativity as Toulouse aim to end the campaign on a positive note.

Head-to-Head and Match Outlook

Recent meetings between these two sides have been evenly balanced. In their last five encounters, Nantes have recorded one win, three draws, and one defeat, with both teams averaging 1.0 goal per game. The most recent head-to-head ended 2-2 on September 27, 2025, showing how competitive this fixture can be. However, the current form and motivation levels suggest that Toulouse may have the upper hand this time.

While Nantes will want to give their fans a decent farewell performance, their morale and defensive frailties could make it difficult to contain a confident Toulouse side. The visitors have been more consistent in attack and will look to exploit any gaps left by a home team already resigned to relegation. Given the attacking tendencies of both sides, this match could produce several goal-scoring opportunities.

Key Stats Summary

• Ranking: Nantes 17th, Toulouse 10th.


• Last match: Nantes lost 1-0 to Lens; Toulouse beat Lyon 2-1.


• Season averages: Nantes 0.9 goals scored, 1.6 conceded; Toulouse 1.4 scored, 1.4 conceded.


• Head-to-head: 1 win each, 3 draws in last 5 meetings.


• BTTS (Yes): 59% probability.


• Over 2.5 goals: 56% probability.

Prediction and Final Analysis

All signs point toward a competitive but open match. Toulouse have the momentum and motivation to finish their campaign strongly, while Nantes will try to restore some pride before saying goodbye to Ligue 1. The visitors’ attacking form and the hosts’ defensive instability suggest that both teams could find the net, making this an entertaining fixture to close the season.

Nantes vs Toulouse prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score – Yes with 59% probability.