The Diego Armando Maradona Stadium in Naples hosts one of the most anticipated Round of 16 clashes in the 2025/26 Coppa Italia, as Napoli face Cagliari on Wednesday, December 3, with kick-off scheduled for 18:00. Antonio Conte’s men enter the competition for the first time this season, while Fabio Pisacane’s side have already battled through two rounds to reach this stage. The encounter promises to be an intriguing test between a Serie A title contender and a team looking to upset the odds in the cup.

Napoli’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Napoli approach this fixture in excellent form, having reclaimed the top spot in Serie A thanks to a crucial 1-0 away win over Roma on November 30, courtesy of a goal from David Neres. Conte’s side are currently level on points with Milan at the summit and have been showing remarkable consistency across competitions. In their last five matches, the Partenopei have recorded three wins, one draw, and one defeat, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game.

The Maradona Stadium has become a true fortress: Napoli are unbeaten in their last 20 home matches across all competitions. This impressive streak includes seven wins and two draws at home this season between Serie A and the Champions League. Their defensive organization has been key, with Conte’s men often controlling matches from the back and rarely allowing opponents to find space in the final third. In fact, at least one team failed to score in 28 of Napoli’s last 30 matches, underlining their defensive discipline.

Despite their strong form, Conte faces some selection headaches. The injury list remains long, with Anguissa, De Bruyne, Gilmour, Lukaku, and Meret all unavailable, while Gutierrez remains a doubt. A degree of rotation is expected, but the coach is unlikely to compromise too much given the single-elimination nature of the tie. Napoli’s record in the Coppa Italia also suggests a cautious approach early on, with Under 0.5 goals in three of their last ten home matches in the competition.

Cagliari’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Cagliari arrive in Naples after a mixed run of results. The Sardinians were defeated 2-1 by Juventus in their most recent Serie A outing, despite taking an early lead through Sebastiano Esposito. That loss extended their winless streak to nine matches across all competitions. Their last victory dates back to September 23, when they beat Frosinone 4-1 in the previous round of the Coppa Italia.

Under Pisacane, Cagliari have shown flashes of attacking intent but continue to struggle for consistency. In their last five matches, they have recorded no wins, two draws, and three defeats, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Away from home, their form remains concerning, with no victories in their last five away fixtures. However, they have been involved in lively second halves, with Over 0.5 goals scored after the break in 19 of their last 21 matches.

In the Coppa Italia, Cagliari’s record this season stands at one win and one draw, with an average of 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. Pisacane is expected to make some changes to his lineup, possibly maintaining a 3-5-2 formation featuring Esposito and Borrelli up front. Belotti and Zé Pedro remain sidelined, while Mazzitelli and Mina are doubtful. The coach will hope his side can rediscover the attacking sharpness that saw them dominate Frosinone earlier in the competition.

Napoli vs Cagliari: Tactical Overview and Head-to-Head

Historically, this fixture has been one-sided. In their last five meetings, Napoli have won four and drawn one, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game while conceding just 0.4. The most recent encounter, played on August 30, 2025, ended 1-0 in favor of Napoli. Conte’s team tend to dominate possession and press high, forcing opponents into errors, while Cagliari often rely on counterattacks and set pieces to create chances.

Given the current form and the difference in squad depth, Napoli are clear favorites to progress. However, the Coppa Italia often brings surprises, especially when managers rotate their squads. Conte’s men will need to maintain focus against a Cagliari side that, despite their struggles, have shown resilience in cup competitions. The home advantage and Napoli’s defensive solidity could once again prove decisive in a match that may not produce many goals.

Probable Lineups Napoli vs Cagliari

NAPOLI (3-4-2-1): Gollini; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Juan Jesus; Politano, Lobotka, Zielinski, Olivera; Neres, Kvaratskhelia; Osimhen. Coach: A. Conte

CAGLIARI (3-5-2): Scuffet; Dossena, Mina, Obert; Nandez, Deiola, Prati, Sulemana, Augello; Esposito, Borrelli. Coach: F. Pisacane

Napoli vs Cagliari Prediction and Final Analysis

This Coppa Italia clash looks set to follow a familiar pattern: Napoli controlling possession and dictating tempo, while Cagliari attempt to stay compact and strike on the counter. Conte’s side have been nearly unbeatable at home, and their defensive organization should limit Cagliari’s opportunities. The visitors’ ongoing struggles in front of goal further tilt the balance toward the hosts. Expect a disciplined performance from Napoli, who will aim to secure qualification without overexerting themselves ahead of their upcoming league commitments.

The most likely outcome is a Napoli win (1) with a 61% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 23%, while a Cagliari win (2) stands at 16%.