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Prediction published on Mar 1, 2026 9:02 PM by Dario in Netherlands - KNVB Beker | Modified on Mar 1, 2026 9:02 PM
The KNVB Cup reaches its decisive stage as NEC Nijmegen and PSV face off in the semi-finals on Tuesday, March 3. Both sides have impressed this season, with PSV chasing a domestic double and NEC enjoying one of their best campaigns in years. The clash at the Goffertstadion promises to be a thrilling encounter between two of the most entertaining attacking teams in Dutch football.
NEC Nijmegen have been one of the surprise packages of the season, combining attacking flair with consistent results. In the KNVB Beker, they remain unbeaten with a record of 4 wins, no draws, and no defeats, averaging 2.3 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded per match. Their attacking consistency is remarkable — they have scored in each of their last 18 home games and in all of their last 17 matches overall. The Nijmegen side also tend to entertain, with over 1.5 total goals recorded in 32 of their last 34 fixtures.
Despite their strong cup form, NEC’s recent league results have been mixed. They lost 2-3 to Fortuna Sittard on February 28 and have managed only one win in their last five matches across all competitions (1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats). Still, their offensive output remains steady, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game during that stretch. At home, NEC are particularly reliable in the second half, with over 0.5 goals scored after the break in each of their last 18 home fixtures.
In the previous rounds of the KNVB Cup, NEC edged past FC Volendam 1-0 and defeated De Treffers 2-1. While their cup performances have been less dominant than in the Eredivisie, their ability to find goals in crucial moments has carried them this far. The team’s attacking leaders have been instrumental, and their home crowd will expect another spirited display against the league leaders.
PSV continue to demonstrate why they are considered one of the strongest teams in the Netherlands. The Eindhoven giants are on course for the league title and have been ruthless in the KNVB Beker, winning all three of their matches so far with an average of 3.7 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded per game. Their attacking power is reflected in their recent 1-3 away victory over Heracles Almelo on February 28, a result that extended their run of four wins in the last five matches.
PSV’s matches are rarely short of goals. Over 2.5 goals have been scored in each of their last 16 games, and they have found the net in 31 of their last 32 fixtures. In the KNVB Beker, they have scored at least once in 21 of their last 22 appearances, while over 1.5 goals have been recorded in 22 of their last 23 cup matches. Their attacking consistency extends to the first half as well, with over 0.5 goals before the break in 37 of their last 40 games. PSV’s offensive rhythm and depth make them a constant threat, regardless of the opponent or venue.
Historically, PSV have dominated this fixture. In their last five head-to-head meetings with NEC, they have won three, drawn one, and lost one, averaging 3.0 goals scored per game. The most recent encounter ended in a spectacular 3-5 victory for PSV in September 2025, underlining the attacking potential on both sides.
This semi-final promises to be a high-tempo, open contest between two sides that thrive on attacking football. NEC Nijmegen will look to exploit their home advantage and maintain their impressive scoring streak, but their defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed by PSV’s relentless forward play. The visitors, on the other hand, will aim to control possession and use their superior finishing to secure a place in the final.
Both teams have shown a tendency to produce goal-heavy matches. NEC’s last 17 games have all featured at least one goal, while PSV’s attacking record speaks for itself. Given these trends, it would be surprising if this semi-final turned into a low-scoring affair. The combination of NEC’s offensive courage and PSV’s clinical efficiency suggests that fans can expect another goal-filled spectacle, similar to their previous 3-5 encounter earlier in the season.
While NEC have proven they can compete with the top sides, PSV’s current form and experience in knockout competitions give them a clear edge. The Eindhoven side have not drawn in 20 of their last 21 matches, often taking control early — they have led at half time in their last three KNVB Beker games. If they maintain that momentum, PSV are well positioned to reach the final.
BetMines prediction: Over 2.5 goals with a 68% probability. Both teams have been prolific in front of goal, and their recent head-to-head history supports the expectation of another high-scoring match. PSV’s attacking depth and NEC’s fearless approach should combine to deliver an entertaining semi-final full of chances and goals.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
NEC Nijmegen
PSV
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
0
10
0
10
2.5
4
6
1
9
3.5
6
4
2
8
4.5
7
3
5
5