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Necaxa
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Pumas UNAM
Prediction published on Mar 5, 2026 4:01 AM by Dario in Mexico - Liga MX | Modified on Mar 5, 2026 4:01 AM
The upcoming Liga MX clash between Necaxa and Pumas UNAM promises to be an exciting encounter as both sides look to bounce back from recent defeats. The match will take place at the Estadio Victoria, where the home side will aim to take advantage of their strong record against the visitors. Despite losing their last outing, both teams remain in contention for key positions in the league table, making this fixture crucial for their aspirations.
Necaxa enter this match sitting 13th in the Liga MX standings, with a record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 14 losses this season. Their latest result was a 2-1 defeat away to Pachuca, a setback that underlined their defensive fragility. The team has conceded at least one goal in each of their last 17 league matches, a worrying trend that continues to cost them valuable points.
In their last five games, Necaxa have recorded 2 wins and 3 defeats, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match. Despite their inconsistency, they have shown flashes of attacking potential, particularly through players like Javier Ruiz, who has contributed two goals this season and averages 1.2 ball recoveries per game. His performance will be key if Necaxa are to contain Pumas’ offensive power.
At home, the Rayos have historically performed well against Pumas, winning the last four meetings at the Estadio Victoria. This psychological edge could play a role as they look to recover from a difficult run of results. However, their defensive issues remain a major concern, especially against a side that rarely fails to score.
Pumas UNAM arrive in Aguascalientes in fifth place, with a solid record of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses. Their most recent match ended in a 3-2 defeat to Toluca, a result that ended their unbeaten streak but did little to diminish their strong overall form. Over their last five matches, Pumas have collected 2 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 defeat, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
The visitors have been particularly effective in attack, having scored in each of their last 13 Liga MX matches, including all of their last 13 away fixtures. Moreover, over 1.5 total goals have been scored in 21 of their last 22 away games, highlighting their tendency to be involved in open, high-scoring contests. Their attacking consistency makes them a dangerous opponent for any team, especially one struggling defensively like Necaxa.
Defensively, Pumas have shown some vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per match this season. However, their offensive balance and ability to find the net regularly have kept them among the top sides in the league. Players such as Adalberto Carrasquilla and Pedro Vite have been instrumental in maintaining this attacking rhythm, combining creativity and work rate in midfield.
When comparing both teams’ current form, Pumas UNAM appear to be in better shape overall, boasting a more consistent attack and a higher league position. However, Necaxa’s home record against the Felinos cannot be ignored, as they have won the last four meetings at the Estadio Victoria. This historical advantage, combined with their need for points to climb the table, suggests that the hosts will approach this match with determination.
Statistically, both teams tend to produce matches with multiple goals. Pumas have been involved in high-scoring encounters throughout the season, while Necaxa’s defensive struggles often lead to open games. The last head-to-head between these sides ended 1-1, but given their recent attacking trends, a more goal-filled contest could be on the cards this time.
Considering that both teams have scored in 56% of their recent matches and that over 2.5 goals have been recorded in 56% of their games, fans can expect an entertaining fixture with plenty of attacking action. Pumas’ offensive momentum and Necaxa’s home advantage make this a balanced matchup, but one that leans toward goals rather than a tight defensive battle.
Necaxa vs Pumas UNAM prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 56% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Necaxa
Pumas UNAM
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
1
9
1.5
3
7
3
7
2.5
4
6
5
5
3.5
9
1
5
5
4.5
10
0
7
3