The penultimate round of the 2025 Liga MX Apertura regular season brings a crucial clash between two sides still fighting for a playoff spot. Necaxa host Santos Laguna at the Estadio Victoria in a match that could define their postseason hopes. Both teams are under pressure to deliver, and with their recent inconsistencies, this encounter promises intensity and goals.

Necaxa’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Necaxa come into this fixture after a thrilling 4-3 away win against Atlético San Luis on October 27, a result that kept their faint playoff hopes alive. Despite that victory, their overall form remains unstable, with just 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats in their last five matches. During that stretch, they have averaged 2.0 goals scored but conceded 2.6 per game, highlighting both their attacking potential and defensive fragility.

Throughout the season, Necaxa’s record stands at 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, with an average of 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. Their games are rarely dull — Over 0.5 goals have been scored in 33 of their last 34 Liga MX matches. However, slow starts have been a recurring issue, as they have trailed at half time in 8 of their last 11 league games. Coach Fernando Gago, who replaced Nicolás Larcamón earlier in the season, continues to search for balance between attack and defense. Playing at home, Necaxa will rely on their offensive flair and the support of the Victoria crowd to overcome their defensive lapses.

Santos Laguna’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Santos Laguna arrive in Aguascalientes after a 3-1 home victory over Querétaro on October 26, a much-needed result that boosted their confidence. Under new management, the team has shown flashes of improvement, recording 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats in their last five outings. Their season record mirrors Necaxa’s inconsistency: 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with an average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game.

Despite their attacking potential, Santos Laguna’s biggest weakness lies away from home. The team has not won any of their last 20 away matches in Liga MX, a streak that severely undermines their playoff ambitions. They have also conceded at least one goal in each of those 20 away games and trailed at half time in their last four away fixtures. On the positive side, their matches tend to open up after the break — Over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half in 18 of their last 20 away games. The challenge for Santos will be to maintain defensive discipline while exploiting Necaxa’s vulnerabilities at the back.

Necaxa vs Santos Laguna: Tactical Overview and Match Analysis

Historically, this fixture has produced goals and drama. In their last five head-to-head meetings, Necaxa have won three, drawn one, and lost one, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. Their most recent encounter, in February 2025, ended in a 3-2 victory for Necaxa, further emphasizing the attacking nature of this rivalry.

Both teams enter this match with similar motivations — they need points to stay alive in the playoff race. Necaxa’s home advantage and recent attacking form could give them a slight edge, but their defensive issues remain a major concern. Santos, meanwhile, have shown resilience in recent weeks but continue to struggle on the road. Given both sides’ tendency to concede and score freely, this matchup could easily turn into an open, end-to-end contest.

Necaxa’s offensive trio will be key, especially if they can exploit Santos’ defensive lapses early on. For the visitors, maintaining compactness and capitalizing on counterattacks will be crucial. The game’s outcome may hinge on which defense can hold firm under pressure — something neither side has managed consistently this season.

BetMines Prediction: Necaxa vs Santos Laguna

The most likely outcome is a Necaxa win (1) with a 59% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 22%, while a Santos Laguna win (2) stands at 19%.

Given both teams’ attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities, another high-scoring affair is expected. However, the home advantage and recent head-to-head record suggest Necaxa are better positioned to claim all three points.