Netherlands host Serbia at the Philips Stadion in Eindhoven on Sunday, October 4, for matchday four of UEFA Nations League Group A2. The teams arrive with different concerns: the Netherlands are second with five points and remain in the race near the top of the group, while fourth-placed Serbia have lost all three of their matches. The Dutch are two points behind Greece and one ahead of Germany, giving them a chance to strengthen their position with a home win. Serbia need a result to halt a difficult run and improve their prospects in the group.

Netherlands' Recent Form and Key Stats

The Netherlands earned a 2-2 draw away to Greece on October 1 after recovering from a two-goal deficit. That comeback left them with one win and two draws from their first three Nations League matches. Across their last five games in all competitions, they have recorded two wins and three draws, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding 1.2 per match. Their wider run is also strong: they have avoided defeat in regular time across eight consecutive matches and are unbeaten in 20 of their last 21.

Home form adds to the Dutch case ahead of this fixture. The Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 10 competitive home matches, with six wins and four draws. Their scoring record offers another reason for confidence: they have found the net in 20 of their last 21 matches, including 20 of their last 21 UEFA Nations League games. More than 1.5 total goals have been scored in 20 of their last 21 matches, although that figure refers to goals by both teams rather than Dutch goals alone.

The timing of goals may be worth watching. At least one second-half goal has been scored in each of the Netherlands' last 17 home matches, their last 16 matches overall and their last 14 Nations League fixtures. They have also led at half-time in six of their last 10 home games. Those trends do not guarantee an early advantage or a goal after the break against Serbia, but they show that recent Dutch matches have rarely stayed quiet throughout.

Serbia's Recent Form and Key Stats

Serbia travel to Eindhoven after a 2-0 defeat away to Germany on October 1. They have lost all three games in this Nations League campaign, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. Their broader recent form is no better: five consecutive defeats have brought an average of just 0.6 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per game. Across those five losses, Serbia have conceded 14 goals.

Results away from home have also been difficult. Serbia have suffered five straight defeats as designated visitors and have trailed at half-time in their last three away matches. Across all venues, they have been behind at the interval in seven of their last 10 games. Their recent Nations League fixtures have followed a relatively contained scoring pattern, however: fewer than 3.5 total goals have been scored in each of their last 12 matches in the competition, with fewer than 1.5 total goals before half-time in all 12.

There is a distinction between that Nations League half-time trend and Serbia's more recent results overall. At least one first-half goal has been scored in each of their last 11 matches across competitions, but the supplied figures do not say that Serbia scored those goals. With no points on the board in Group A2, the visitors need to change the direction of their campaign, yet their current scoring and defensive averages leave them facing a demanding assignment against an unbeaten home side.

Netherlands vs Serbia Match Analysis

The most recent meeting offers a useful reference point without settling what will happen this time: the Netherlands won 2-1 on September 27. The supplied head-to-head summary records two Dutch wins from two meetings, with averages of 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Serbia scored in the latest encounter, so the visitors cannot be dismissed as having no route to goal. Even so, their five-match scoring average of 0.6 sits in sharp contrast to the Netherlands' consistent record of finding the net.

The Netherlands enter this match with the clearer form advantage. They are unbeaten through three group games, have not lost any of their last five matches, and carry a 10-game unbeaten sequence in competitive home fixtures. Serbia, by comparison, have taken no points from three group matches and have lost five times in succession overall. The Dutch comeback against Greece also demonstrated their ability to recover a result when behind, though conceding twice in that game is a reminder that home advantage alone will not remove every risk.

For this Netherlands vs Serbia preview, the balance of the evidence points toward the hosts: stronger recent results, reliable scoring and a positive head-to-head record all support their case. Serbia's sequence of Nations League matches with fewer than 3.5 total goals suggests the game need not become a high-scoring contest for the Netherlands to make their advantage count. Their immediate task is to turn that statistical edge into three points and remain firmly involved in the Group A2 race.

Netherlands vs Serbia prediction from BetMines: Netherlands win (1) with 71% probability.