The 2026-27 Premier League season begins with an eye-catching fixture as Newcastle United host Liverpool at St. James' Park on August 23, with kick-off scheduled for 15:30 local time. Both clubs enter the campaign after significant summer changes, including new managers and several notable departures. Newcastle begin the round ranked 11th, while Liverpool are third. The previous season’s two league meetings produced ten goals, and the available statistics again point towards an eventful contest in which both attacks should have opportunities.

Newcastle United Recent Form and Key Statistics

Newcastle United start their campaign under Matthias Jaissle, who replaced Eddie Howe last month. The Magpies finished 12th last season and will not have European football this term. Their squad has also changed considerably, with Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon among the high-profile players to leave during the summer.

The home side’s latest match ended in a 1-1 draw against Strasbourg on August 16. Across their last five games, Newcastle have recorded one win, one draw and three defeats, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per match. Their finish to the previous Premier League season was similarly difficult: they lost five of their final eight league fixtures, winning twice and drawing once. In all but one of those five defeats, they conceded at least twice.

Results at St. James' Park last season were mixed. Newcastle collected 32 points from 19 home league matches through ten wins, two draws and seven defeats, but they also allowed 30 goals at the venue. Their more recent home trends underline the possibility of another open game:

• Over 1.5 total goals has landed in each of Newcastle’s last 20 home matches.
• The same market has been successful in their last 13 home Premier League fixtures.
• Both teams have scored in Newcastle’s last ten home games.
• The Magpies have conceded at least once in 23 of their previous 24 matches.
• A second-half goal has been recorded in each of their last 20 home fixtures.

There are also personnel concerns. Joelinton is expected to be unavailable for a few weeks because of a groin issue, while Tino Livramento remains out with a calf injury sustained at the World Cup. At least one of Sean Steur or Aladji Bamba could therefore make a full debut. William Osula is likely to operate in the number ten role, with Jaissle facing a decision between Nick Woltemade and Yoanne Wissa at number nine.

Liverpool Recent Form and Key Statistics

Liverpool also begin the season with a new manager after Andoni Iraola replaced Arne Slot, who departed following a fifth-place finish. The visitors played six pre-season games, collecting three wins, one draw and two defeats. They scored 11 times and conceded nine, while their most recent outing brought a 2-0 victory over Como on August 16.

Across their last five matches, Liverpool have two wins, one draw and two losses, with averages of 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their previous league campaign ended without a victory in four games. They drew 1-1 with both Brentford and Chelsea before defeats against Aston Villa by 4-2 and Manchester United by 3-2.

Away form was a particular problem during that period. Liverpool lost seven of their final nine matches on the road across all competitions, winning the other two. Their full Premier League away record was seven victories, three draws and nine defeats. Even so, their attacking numbers remain consistent: Liverpool have scored at least once in each of their last 17 Premier League games, while their last 13 matches in all competitions and last 11 league fixtures have all produced over 1.5 total goals. A second-half goal has also been scored in 18 of their previous 20 away matches.

Alexander Isak could feature against his former club after missing both league meetings with Newcastle last season through injury. He played useful minutes in pre-season and is expected to start, with Hugo Ekitike still recovering. Iraola also has several other availability issues: Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni have knee injuries, Joe Gomez has a muscle problem, and Curtis Jones is a major doubt after suffering a hip issue during pre-season. Following Mohamed Salah’s move to Turkey, teenage player Rio Ngumoha is expected to attempt to fill the space left on the right.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool Match Analysis

The recent head-to-head record gives Liverpool encouragement. Newcastle have managed one win and one draw while losing three of the five matches covered by the supplied summary, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 2.6. The latest meeting ended 4-1, Liverpool won both league encounters last season, and Newcastle are winless in their last nine home league matches against this opponent.

However, the result market looks finely balanced. The supplied probabilities give Newcastle a 39% chance of victory, Liverpool 37% and the draw 24%. That narrow distribution reflects the uncertainty surrounding two teams beginning new managerial eras and dealing with squad changes. Newcastle’s home record offers some support to the hosts, whereas Liverpool’s poor end-of-season away sequence prevents the visitors from being treated as a straightforward choice.

The goals markets provide a clearer statistical direction. Newcastle have repeatedly been involved in home matches featuring goals for both sides, and their recent average of 2.2 conceded per game highlights their defensive vulnerability. Liverpool have scored in 17 consecutive Premier League fixtures, but they also conceded nine goals in six pre-season matches and allowed eight across their final four league games last term. With both sides affected by absences and Newcastle’s last ten home games all seeing each team score, another match containing chances at both ends appears coherent. The data assigns 64% to both teams scoring, compared with 60% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for a first-half goal.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 64% probability.