The Carabao Cup semi-final first leg between Newcastle United and Manchester City promises to be one of the most exciting fixtures of the competition. The Magpies, current holders of the trophy, will host the Sky Blues at St. James’ Park on Tuesday, January 13, aiming to take a first-leg advantage before the return match in Manchester. Both sides come into this clash in strong form, and with attacking quality on display, fans can expect a thrilling encounter under the lights in the North East.

Newcastle United’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Newcastle United enter this semi-final with confidence, having maintained an impressive record in the Carabao Cup. The Magpies have won their last nine matches in the competition and remain unbeaten at home in the tournament for the same number of games. Their attacking consistency has been remarkable, with at least one goal scored in each of their last 18 home matches and two or more goals in the last 13. This attacking rhythm has made St. James’ Park a fortress.

In their most recent outing, Newcastle drew 2-2 against Bournemouth, showing both resilience and attacking flair. Over their last five matches in all competitions, they have recorded three wins, one draw, and one defeat, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. In the Carabao Cup specifically, they have been dominant, winning all three matches this season with an average of 2.7 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded per match.

Newcastle’s attacking depth has been key to their success. Harvey Barnes has been in fine form, scoring twice in recent games to reach double figures for the season, while Nick Woltemade and Anthony Gordon have combined for 17 goals. However, injuries could pose a challenge, with several key players unavailable, including Anthony Elanga, Dan Burn, and Jamal Lascelles. Despite these absences, the Magpies’ home form and attacking momentum make them a formidable opponent for any side.

• Newcastle have scored in each of their last 13 Carabao Cup matches.


• They have won at half time in 11 of their last 12 Carabao Cup fixtures.


• Over 1.5 goals have been scored in each of their last 16 home matches.


• They have not lost at half time in 21 of their last 23 home games.

Manchester City’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Manchester City arrive at St. James’ Park in excellent form, unbeaten in their last 12 matches across all competitions. Their most recent performance was a stunning 10-1 victory over Exeter City in the FA Cup, underlining their attacking power even when rotating the squad. In the Carabao Cup, City have also been flawless this season, winning all three matches with an average of 2.3 goals scored and just 0.3 conceded per game.

The Sky Blues have a rich history in this competition, having lifted the trophy eight times, five of those in the last decade. Their consistency in knockout football is unmatched, and they will be eager to move one step closer to another final. City’s away form has also been strong, with 12 wins at half time in their last 17 away matches and no defeats at half time in 27 of their last 29 overall.

Erling Haaland remains the main attacking threat, with 26 goals in 28 appearances this season, while Phil Foden has added 10 goals to his name. New signing Antoine Semenyo impressed on debut with a goal and an assist, adding further depth to City’s attacking options. However, the visitors will be without several key players, including Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, John Stones, and Mateo Kovacic, which could test their defensive stability.

• Manchester City have won at half time in their last three matches.


• They have not lost at half time in 27 of their last 29 games.


• Average goals scored in their last five matches: 2.8; conceded: 0.8.


• City’s last head-to-head with Newcastle ended in a 2-1 defeat in November 2025.

Newcastle United vs Manchester City Analysis and Prediction

This semi-final first leg is expected to be a high-intensity contest between two of England’s most attack-minded teams. Newcastle’s home advantage and strong scoring record make them a dangerous opponent, but City’s experience and depth could prove decisive. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities recently, which suggests that goals are likely at both ends.

Newcastle’s recent matches have consistently produced goals, with over 1.5 goals in each of their last 16 home fixtures. City, meanwhile, have scored freely in recent weeks and are unbeaten in 12 matches. Given these trends, the likelihood of both teams finding the net is high. The Magpies’ attacking trio will test City’s makeshift defense, while Haaland and Foden will look to exploit any gaps on the counter.

While Newcastle’s energy and home support could make this a close contest, City’s superior squad depth and recent unbeaten run give them a slight edge. The visitors may look to control possession and strike through quick transitions, while Newcastle will rely on intensity and set pieces to create chances. Expect an open game with plenty of attacking action.

Newcastle United vs Manchester City prediction by BetMines:
Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 62% probability.