At St. James' Park, the home side Newcastle hosts Arsenal in one of the two second-leg Carabao Cup semi-finals. In the first leg, in a completely unexpected turn of events, Newcastle secured a commanding 2-0 victory at the Emirates Stadium, thanks to goals from Isak and Gordon. Mikel Arteta’s squad now faces a difficult challenge but comes into this match full of confidence after demolishing Manchester City 5-1 in their latest Premier League fixture. Arsenal had been battling City for the Premier League title last season, but ultimately, the Citizens claimed the championship. Arsenal currently sits six points behind league leaders Liverpool, who show no signs of slowing down and still have a game in hand. The Gunners have comfortably advanced to the Champions League round of 16 but were recently knocked out of the FA Cup by Manchester United. Winning the Carabao Cup is undoubtedly a key objective, as Arsenal has not lifted this trophy since the 1992/93 season. Newcastle, with the advantage from the first leg, must decide whether to close the tie early by scoring first or defend deep and withstand Arsenal’s attacking pressure. Either way, this promises to be an intense, hard-fought match full of surprises.

Newcastle's shape and key statistics

Newcastle has won eight of its last ten matches across all competitions, suffering just two defeats—interestingly, both at home in Premier League fixtures against Fulham (1-2) and Bournemouth (1-4). The Magpies are still in contention for a Champions League spot, living up to preseason expectations.

A crucial stat ahead of this clash: Newcastle has scored in 15 consecutive matches across all competitions. Another confidence booster for Tonali and his teammates is their recent Premier League victory over Arsenal—a 1-0 win secured by a goal from Isak.

Arsenal’s shape and key statistics

To overturn the 2-0 deficit, Arsenal will rely on their red-hot attack, which has netted 15 goals in their last five matches. The Gunners boast the second-best attack in the Premier League, scoring 49 goals in 24 games—an impressive 2+ goals per game average.

Arteta’s squad has proven capable of handling a tight schedule, finishing third in their Champions League group stage with 19 points. As for away performances, excluding the Carabao Cup and FA Cup, Arsenal has not lost an away match since November 6, when they fell 1-0 to Inter Milan at San Siro.

Newcastle - Arsenal Prediction and Tactical Analysis

For Arsenal to qualify for the Carabao Cup final, they must take control of the match, ideally scoring early while avoiding Newcastle’s counter-attacking threat—especially from Isak and Gordon, who have already hurt the Gunners this season.

Given Newcastle’s strong home scoring record and Arsenal’s need to find the net, the BetMines algorithm predicts a high-scoring match where both teams will score.

• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Newcastle - Arsenal match predicts that both teams will score at least one goal at 58%
• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Newcastle - Arsenal match predicts that at least one of the two teams will not score at 42%.

Newcastle - Arsenal predicted lineups

Newcastle (4-3-3): Dubravka; Livramento, Botman, Burn, Hall; Willock, Tonali, Joelinton; Murphy, Isak, Gordon. Coach: Howe.

Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Partey, Rice, Odegaard; Martinelli, Trossard, Havertz. Coach: Arteta.