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Prediction published on Feb 6, 2026 3:02 PM by Dario in France - Ligue 1 | Modified on Feb 6, 2026 3:02 PM
The Côte d’Azur derby returns this Sunday afternoon as OGC Nice host AS Monaco in a crucial Ligue 1 encounter. Both sides enter the match searching for consistency and confidence after uneven campaigns so far. Nice, currently 13th in the table, aim to climb back into the top half, while Monaco, sitting 10th, are eager to close the gap on the European places. With both teams struggling to find stability, this clash at the Allianz Riviera promises intensity, emotion, and a strong local rivalry atmosphere.
After a difficult first half of the season, Nice have shown signs of recovery in recent weeks. The team has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat in their last five matches across all competitions, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Their latest success came in the Coupe de France, where they edged Montpellier 3-2 to reach the quarter-finals. That victory followed a spirited 2-2 draw against Brest, where the Aiglons came back from two goals down, showing renewed resilience and attacking intent.
In Ligue 1, Nice’s overall record stands at 6 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match. However, defensive issues persist: they have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 18 matches. Their first halves have also been problematic, with defeats at half time in seven of their last ten league games and in four consecutive home fixtures. Despite these struggles, Nice remain competitive, especially in the second half, where over 0.5 goals have been scored in 21 of their last 22 Ligue 1 matches.
Injuries continue to affect the squad, but the attacking duo of Sofiane Diop and Elye Wahi has been a bright spot. Diop, with 7 goals and 2 assists this season, remains the creative heartbeat of the team, while Wahi has quickly adapted, scoring three times in four league appearances. Their form could be decisive in this derby, especially against a Monaco defense that has shown vulnerability in recent weeks.
Monaco approach this match after a disappointing 3-1 defeat to Strasbourg in the Coupe de France, a result that ended their cup run and dented morale. In their last five matches, they have managed 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Their league record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 9 defeats reflects inconsistency, particularly away from home, where they have collected just one point from their last four trips.
Monaco’s attacking play remains unpredictable. While they have shown flashes of quality, they have also struggled to maintain rhythm, with under 0.5 goals scored in two of their last ten matches. However, their away games tend to produce action, as both teams have scored in the second half in nine of their last fifteen away fixtures. This pattern suggests that Monaco often grow into matches but find it difficult to control proceedings early on.
Injuries have also disrupted the team’s balance, particularly in defense, forcing several players to adapt to unfamiliar roles. The midfield pairing of Mamadou Coulibaly and Lamine Camara has been one of the few positives, providing energy and creativity. Up front, Maghnes Akliouche and Folarin Balogun remain key attacking outlets, while new signing Simon Adingra could add pace and unpredictability on the flanks.
This derby has historically been tight, and recent meetings confirm that balance: in their last five head-to-heads, both sides have won twice, with one draw, and an average of 1.6 goals scored per team. The most recent encounter ended 2-2 in October 2025, a result that underlines how evenly matched these rivals are. Nice’s home advantage could play a role, but their tendency to start slowly may give Monaco early opportunities.
For Nice, the key will be maintaining defensive concentration and exploiting transitions through Diop and Wahi. Monaco, on the other hand, must improve their defensive organization and avoid conceding early, as they have done in several recent outings. Both teams have attacking potential, but their defensive fragility suggests that goals are likely at both ends.
With both sides coming off contrasting cup results — Nice advancing and Monaco eliminated — motivation levels could differ. The hosts will look to build on their momentum, while the visitors aim to bounce back and keep their European hopes alive. Given the context, a draw would not be a surprise, but Nice’s recent form and home energy might give them a slight edge.
Nice vs Monaco prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 57% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Nice
Monaco
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
0
10
1.5
2
8
1
9
2.5
7
3
3
7
3.5
8
2
6
4
4.5
10
0
9
1