Nottingham Forest and Leeds United meet for the second time in four days when they contest the second round of the Carabao Cup on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Kick-off is scheduled for 19:00 at The City Ground in Nottingham. Leeds won 1-0 at the same venue on August 22, with Anton Stach scoring the late goal that decided their Premier League encounter. Forest therefore enter this cup tie seeking an immediate response, while the visitors will attempt to extend an impressive run in this fixture.

The result is particularly significant because Leeds have now defeated Nottingham Forest in their last two meetings and in four of the last five head-to-head matches. Even so, Forest are rated as the more likely winners in the supplied match probabilities, creating an intriguing contrast between the overall forecast and the recent evidence from this matchup. The home side have a 44% win probability, compared with 25% for a draw and 30% for an away victory.

Nottingham Forest Recent Form and Key Statistics

Nottingham Forest approach the cup match following a disappointing 1-0 home loss to the same opponent. That result marked an unsuccessful beginning to Oliver Glasner's tenure and left Forest with another quick test against a side that has repeatedly caused them problems. The short turnaround gives the Tricky Trees an opportunity to react, but it also means they must find solutions against an opponent that has just prevented them from scoring.

The home team's wider form has been inconsistent. Across their last five matches, Forest have recorded two wins and three defeats, with no draws. They have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per game during that sequence. Those numbers reflect a side capable of producing positive results but currently lacking consistency at both ends of the pitch.

The recent head-to-head record adds to the challenge. From the five meetings covered by the supplied summary, Nottingham Forest have registered one victory and four defeats. They averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded in those games, while the latest contest ended with another narrow loss. Forest will consequently need an improved attacking display if they are to avoid a repeat of the weekend outcome.

There is at least some statistical encouragement in their home-match scoring environment. Only three of Nottingham Forest's last 15 home fixtures have finished with under 0.5 total goals, meaning most of those matches produced at least one goal. However, the immediate concern is not whether the game contains a goal, but whether Forest can contribute after being shut out by Leeds on August 22.

Forest's previous Carabao Cup campaign ended in the third round against Swansea. This season's second-round assignment offers a chance to progress further into the competition, although their recent record against Leeds means home advantage alone cannot be treated as decisive.

Leeds United Recent Form and Key Statistics

Leeds United return to The City Ground with confidence after Anton Stach's late strike secured a 1-0 victory in the teams' latest meeting. That win maintained their recent superiority over Forest and provided another example of Leeds finding a way to prevail in a closely contested fixture.

The visitors' overall form is notably stronger than that of the hosts. Leeds have collected four wins and one draw from their last five matches, remaining unbeaten throughout that run. They have scored an average of 2.4 goals per game while conceding only 0.6. The combination of regular attacking production and a low goals-against average gives the Whites a strong statistical platform for this second-round tie.

Their head-to-head momentum is equally positive. Leeds have won four of the five matches included in the supplied summary, including each of the last two. They will now aim to defeat Nottingham Forest for the second time in the 2026-27 season, only a few days after leaving the same ground with a clean sheet and all three points.

One recurring first-half pattern is also worth noting: at least one team has failed to score before half-time in each of Leeds United's last 23 matches. This does not determine whether the opening period will contain a goal, but it does show a long sequence in which both sides have not scored during the first half.

Leeds also have unfinished business in this competition. Last season they were eliminated at this exact stage after a penalty-shootout defeat to Sheffield Wednesday. Their current unbeaten run and recent success against Forest provide a more encouraging backdrop, but the knockout format leaves little room for a drop in performance.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United Match Analysis

The main question is whether Nottingham Forest can overturn the pattern established by the latest meeting. They have home advantage and the highest individual win probability, but Leeds arrive with the more convincing recent record. The hosts' two victories and three defeats across five matches contrast sharply with the visitors' four wins and one draw.

The available prices also present Forest as narrow favorites, with a home win offered at 2.20. The draw is priced at 3.40 and a Leeds victory at 3.20. Nevertheless, recent head-to-head results make this a less straightforward contest than those odds might initially suggest. Leeds have already demonstrated that they can win at this venue, and their average of 0.6 goals conceded across the last five matches highlights their recent defensive efficiency.

Goal-market probabilities point toward another relatively controlled encounter. Under 2.5 goals is assessed at 52%, narrowly ahead of over 2.5 goals at 48%. The both-teams-to-score market is similarly close, with “No” at 51% and “Yes” at 49%. These margins indicate a balanced outlook, although the 1-0 scoreline from August 22 provides direct support for the possibility of another match with limited scoring.

Forest's need for a response could make the second meeting more competitive, but Leeds have several relevant advantages in the supplied data: better five-match form, a stronger scoring average, a lower concession rate and four victories from the last five head-to-head encounters. At the same time, Nottingham Forest's 44% win probability prevents the visitors from being viewed as clear favorites. The likely tone is therefore a close cup battle in which efficiency may matter more than the number of chances created.

With the previous match producing only one goal and Leeds conceding at a low rate during their unbeaten five-game sequence, the under 2.5-goal option is the most coherent conclusion among the available candidates. Forest must improve on their weekend attacking output, while Leeds have already shown they can protect a narrow advantage at The City Ground.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 52% probability.