Novorizontino host Avaí on September 5, 2026, at 19:00 local time in the 26th round of Brazil’s Serie B. The match will take place at the Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte. The hosts begin the contest in fourth place and are pursuing another positive result after beating Sport Recife 2-1. Avaí, currently 16th, travel after a narrow 1-0 defeat against Atlético GO. Although the latest meeting between the sides produced an entertaining 3-3 draw, the broader statistical picture points to a potentially tighter contest this time. Novorizontino have stronger season numbers, a productive attack and encouraging home trends, while Avaí have repeatedly struggled to establish a half-time advantage in away fixtures.

Novorizontino Recent Form and Key Statistics

Novorizontino enter this Serie B fixture with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five matches. Across that sequence, the home team averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game. Their latest result continued the positive momentum, as they defeated Sport Recife 2-1 on August 28.

Their complete league record also underlines why they are fourth in the standings. Novorizontino have collected 12 wins, seven draws and six defeats, scoring an average of 1.6 goals while conceding 0.9 per match. The source material also describes them as the division’s leading attacking side and highlights their strength when playing at home. Those qualities have kept them firmly involved in the promotion battle at this stage of the campaign.

Several home statistics are particularly relevant to this Novorizontino vs Avaí preview. At least one second-half goal has been recorded in each of Novorizontino’s last 21 home matches. Looking specifically at Serie B, that same trend has occurred in their previous 13 home league fixtures. This suggests that the contest may continue to develop after the interval, even if the opening period proves more controlled.

Novorizontino have also started their recent league games effectively. They have been ahead at half-time in each of their last three Serie B matches, while avoiding a half-time deficit in 20 of their previous 21 home games. That combination gives the hosts a notable early-game advantage on paper, especially against opponents who have found first-half leads difficult to secure away from home.

• Last five matches: three wins, one draw and one defeat.
• Serie B record: 12 wins, seven draws and six defeats.
• Season averages: 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
• Recent form averages: 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Avaí Recent Form and Key Statistics

Avaí arrive in 16th place with a season record of eight victories, five draws and 12 defeats. Their league averages stand at 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Compared with Novorizontino, they have won fewer games, lost more often and possess a lower scoring average, leaving them with a demanding assignment against the fourth-placed hosts.

The visitors’ last five results nevertheless show that they cannot be dismissed. Avaí have registered three wins and two defeats during that period, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. However, their most recent appearance ended in a 1-0 loss to Atlético GO on August 30. That setback means they approach this away match looking for an immediate response.

Away-game first-half performances represent an important concern. Avaí have failed to win the first half in each of their last 15 away matches. In addition, their previous 12 Serie B fixtures have all contained fewer than 1.5 first-half goals. These figures support the possibility of an initially cautious contest, with Avaí attempting to remain competitive before the game opens up later.

The contrast with Novorizontino is clear: the hosts have recently produced three consecutive half-time leads in the league, whereas Avaí’s long away sequence contains no first-half victories. The visitors’ improved five-match record provides some encouragement, but their overall campaign and away trends make this one of their more difficult fixtures.

• Last five matches: three wins and two defeats.
• Serie B record: eight wins, five draws and 12 defeats.
• Season averages: 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
• Last result: a 1-0 defeat against Atlético GO.

Novorizontino vs Avaí Match Analysis

The available numbers give Novorizontino the clearer advantage. Their recent averages are stronger at both ends of the pitch, and their league record demonstrates greater consistency across the season. The hosts’ 56% win probability compares with 26% for the draw and 18% for an Avaí victory. Home strength, fourth place and the 2-1 success over Sport Recife all reinforce that assessment.

However, the head-to-head record suggests that the fixture has not always been straightforward. Across the listed meetings, Novorizontino have one win, Avaí have one win and three games have ended level. Novorizontino’s head-to-head scoring average is 1.6, compared with 1.4 conceded, while the latest encounter finished 3-3 on May 3, 2026. That result shows the visitors are capable of competing, even though the current season statistics favor the home side.

The goals data offer a more restrained expectation than the previous 3-3 meeting. Under 2.5 goals carries a 58% probability, while over 2.5 stands at 42%. The probability of both teams scoring is 45%, compared with 55% for at least one side failing to score. Avaí’s sequence of 12 league games with under 1.5 first-half goals further supports the prospect of a measured opening phase.

Corners could also be a major feature. Novorizontino’s last 13 Serie B matches have produced over 8.5 corners, their previous 11 have gone above 9.5, and each of their last 10 league games has featured over 10.5 corners. Even so, the central match narrative remains Novorizontino’s stronger overall record against an Avaí side that has not won at half-time in 15 consecutive away matches. The hosts appear better positioned to control decisive periods and convert their statistical superiority into three points.

Novorizontino vs Avaí prediction from BetMines: Novorizontino win (1) with 56% probability.