The CD Numancia and RCD Mallorca face off this week at the Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in the second round of the 2025–26 Copa del Rey. This single-leg tie will determine which side advances to the round of 32, and both clubs will be eager to extend their journey in Spain’s prestigious cup competition. Historically, Mallorca have had the upper hand in this matchup, but Numancia’s home advantage and passionate support could make this a much closer contest than expected.

CD Numancia: Recent Form and Key Stats

Numancia come into this clash after a convincing 3-0 victory over Arenas de Getxo in the first round of the Copa del Rey. That result showcased their ability to perform in knockout settings, particularly at home. However, their overall form across competitions has been inconsistent, with just 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats in their last five matches. During that stretch, they have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, suggesting a team that often struggles to find the net but remains defensively disciplined.

In the Copa del Rey, Numancia’s record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with an impressive 3.0 goals scored per match and none conceded. Despite that, their attacking output tends to fade early in games: they have not led at half time in their last 15 matches, and under 1.5 goals have been scored before the break in 19 of their last 20 fixtures. This pattern suggests that Numancia often start cautiously, relying on second-half surges or defensive solidity to stay competitive.

At home, the Soria-based side have also shown a tendency for low-scoring affairs. Under 0.5 total goals have been recorded in 4 of their last 10 home matches, underlining their pragmatic approach at Los Pajaritos. The fans will hope that their team’s recent cup performance can inspire another strong showing against a top-flight opponent.

RCD Mallorca: Recent Form and Key Stats

Mallorca arrive in Soria after a 2-2 draw against Osasuna in La Liga, a result that extended their mixed run of form. Over their last five matches, the Balearic side have registered 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. In the Copa del Rey, they began their campaign with a professional 2-0 win over Atlètic Sant Just, keeping a clean sheet and showing their superior quality against lower-tier opposition.

Under coach Jagoba Arrasate, Mallorca have developed a balanced style, combining defensive organization with quick transitions. In cup competitions, they tend to manage games efficiently: under 0.5 goals have been recorded in 3 of their last 12 Copa del Rey matches, and in 2 of their last 10 away fixtures in the tournament. This indicates a team that often controls the tempo and avoids chaotic, high-scoring encounters.

Facing Numancia, Mallorca will look to impose their technical superiority and experience. However, they will be aware that Los Pajaritos is a challenging venue, especially against a side that thrives on defensive resilience. The visitors’ attacking players will need to stay patient and capitalize on any defensive lapses from the hosts.

Numancia vs Mallorca: Tactical Overview and Match Analysis

This Copa del Rey tie promises an intriguing contrast of styles. Numancia will likely adopt a compact defensive setup, aiming to frustrate Mallorca and exploit counterattacking opportunities. Their recent statistics suggest a cautious first half, with few chances created early on. Meanwhile, Mallorca are expected to dominate possession and gradually increase pressure as the game progresses, relying on their superior squad depth and attacking options to make the difference.

Historically, the head-to-head record slightly favors Numancia, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat in their last five meetings. The most recent encounter ended 1-1 in April 2019, highlighting how evenly matched these sides can be. However, given the difference in divisions and Mallorca’s current momentum, the visitors enter as clear favorites to advance.

Numancia’s main challenge will be breaking through Mallorca’s disciplined defense, while the Balearic side must avoid complacency and remain alert to quick transitions. The match could be tight for long periods, with the outcome potentially decided by a single moment of quality or a set-piece situation.

BetMines Prediction: Numancia vs Mallorca

The most likely outcome is a Mallorca win (2) with a 61% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 24%, while a Numancia win (1) stands at 15%.