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O'Higgins
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Boca Juniors
Prediction published on Jul 29, 2026 1:09 AM by Dario in South America - Copa Sudamericana | Modified on Jul 29, 2026 1:09 AM
O'Higgins host Boca Juniors in Rancagua on Thursday, July 31, 2026, for the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana round-of-32 tie. Boca carry a narrow advantage into the return match after winning the first leg 1-0 on July 24. That result leaves the contest open: the Chilean side must overturn the deficit, while the visitors will try to protect their lead and secure a place in the round of 16 against Recoleta of Paraguay. Both teams arrive after domestic defeats and neither scored in its most recent fixture, adding further intrigue to a decisive match in which one goal could significantly change the direction of the tie.
O'Higgins approach the return leg after consecutive 2-0 defeats. They were unable to score in the first match against Boca Juniors and then lost by the same margin to Concepcion on July 27. Those results underline the immediate challenge facing the hosts: they need to recover from a one-goal aggregate deficit after going two matches without finding the net.
Their broader form has also been inconsistent. Across their last five matches, O'Higgins recorded two wins and three defeats, with no draws. They averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game during that sequence. In the Copa Sudamericana this season, their record stands at three victories, one draw and three losses, accompanied by averages of 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
There are nevertheless encouraging continental results for the Chilean team to draw upon. O'Higgins defeated Millonarios 2-0 and Boston River 2-0, while also holding San Pablo to a 0-0 draw. They kept a clean sheet in all three matches, demonstrating that defensive control has previously provided a platform for positive outcomes in this competition. Repeating that solidity would keep their qualification hopes alive, although they must also improve their finishing after failing to make their opportunities count in the opening leg.
Arnaldo Castillo, Martin Sarrafiore and Francisco Gonzalez were identified as the attacking trio used in the first meeting, but O'Higgins lacked the necessary precision in decisive moments. Tomas Aviles has accumulated 89 minutes across the last two games, while Brizuela, Robledo, Pavez and Faundez have regularly formed the final line. Another notable trend is the volume of corners in their games, with over 7.5 corners recorded in 28 of the last 30 O'Higgins matches.
Boca Juniors travel with a 1-0 aggregate lead, but their latest performance brought a heavy setback. They lost 3-0 away to Deportivo Riestra on July 26, conceding all three goals during the first half. The defeat came in their Clausura opener after changes were made to the side, and it raised questions about their ability to respond quickly before this continental assignment.
Despite that loss, Boca's recent record remains slightly stronger than that of their hosts. Their last five fixtures produced three wins and two defeats, without a draw, while they averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Their Copa Sudamericana figures show one victory from one match, with an average of 1.0 goal scored and no goals allowed. That clean sheet was secured in the first leg and remains central to their advantage.
The visitors also defeated Sarmiento de Junin 2-0 in the Copa Argentina, offering another example of their capacity to combine a positive result with a clean sheet. Leandro Paredes was rested during the weekend match. Lozano has received medical clearance after missing the first leg, when Dylan Gorosito played on the right side of the defence. Alvaro Montero has recently been trusted in goal ahead of Brey, while Lautaro Blanco, Flores, Merentiel and Villa are also among the players discussed in connection with Boca's recent setup. Adam Bareiro is absent through injury.
Low-scoring matches have been a particularly strong pattern for the Argentine side. A maximum of three total goals was recorded in 32 of Boca Juniors' last 33 matches. In addition, at least one team failed to score during the first half in 36 of their previous 38 games. Those numbers align with the controlled 1-0 first leg and suggest that Boca have frequently been involved in fixtures decided without a high goal total.
The second leg presents two very different requirements. O'Higgins cannot qualify without scoring, but an overly aggressive approach could give Boca Juniors opportunities to increase their aggregate advantage. The hosts' best continental performances this year were built on clean sheets, so defensive balance remains important even as they search for an equalising goal in the tie.
Boca Juniors, meanwhile, do not need to chase the match from the opening stages. Their first-leg victory and recent low-scoring trend provide a clear statistical basis for a patient contest. However, the 3-0 loss to Deportivo Riestra showed that they can encounter serious problems when conceding early, making the opening phase especially important. The visitors will want to avoid giving O'Higgins the momentum that a quick goal would create.
The recent numbers show little appetite for draws from either team. O'Higgins have not drawn any of their last five matches, while Boca have also gone five games without finishing level. Their only head-to-head meeting ended in Boca's 1-0 victory, leaving the summary at one win for the Argentine club, no draws and no O'Higgins victories. The supplied Copa Sudamericana ranking places O'Higgins first and Boca Juniors second, but the immediate qualification picture is defined by Boca's one-goal advantage.
Overall, this O'Higgins vs Boca Juniors Copa Sudamericana preview points toward a tense return leg shaped by the hosts' need to attack and the visitors' opportunity to manage the score. O'Higgins must rediscover the finishing that helped them beat Millonarios and Boston River, whereas Boca will look to reproduce the defensive discipline of the first meeting rather than the vulnerability seen in their latest domestic defeat. With a round-of-16 place at stake, efficiency in both penalty areas is likely to determine which team advances.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
O'Higgins
Boca Juniors
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
3
7
3
7
2.5
4
6
6
4
3.5
6
4
6
4
4.5
9
1
10
0