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Prediction published on Mar 20, 2026 9:10 PM by Dario in France - Ligue 1 | Modified on Mar 20, 2026 9:10 PM
The 27th round of Ligue 1 offers a thrilling encounter this Sunday afternoon as Olympique Lyonnais host AS Monaco at the Groupama Stadium. Both teams enter this clash with very different dynamics: Lyon are struggling to regain consistency after a difficult run, while Monaco are flying high and closing in on the European qualification spots. With only four points separating them in the standings, this match could have a major impact on the race for the top four.
Olympique Lyonnais approach this fixture in a complicated moment. The team has failed to win any of its last four Ligue 1 matches and recently suffered elimination from the Europa League after a 0-2 home defeat against Celta de Vigo. Despite remaining in fourth place, their advantage over the chasing pack has narrowed considerably, increasing the pressure to deliver a strong performance at home.
According to the latest data, Lyon’s last five matches have produced 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeat, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Over the course of the season, their Ligue 1 record stands at 14 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. These numbers highlight a team that remains competitive but has struggled to convert chances into victories in recent weeks.
At home, however, Lyon continue to show resilience. They have scored at least one goal in 19 of their last 20 home matches and have not lost at half time in 18 of their last 20. Moreover, over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half in 18 of their last 20 home fixtures, suggesting that their matches often come alive after the break. The team has also led at half time in 6 of their last 10 Ligue 1 games, a sign that they often start strongly when playing in front of their fans.
Injuries have played a role in their recent struggles, with several key players unavailable. However, the return of some regulars in midweek could provide a much-needed boost. The focus will be on tightening the defense and rediscovering attacking efficiency, especially against a Monaco side in excellent form.
AS Monaco arrive at the Groupama Stadium in outstanding shape. The team has recorded four wins and one draw in their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals per game while conceding just 1.0. Their most recent result, a 2-0 victory against Brest, confirmed their momentum and reinforced their ambitions to climb into the top four.
Over the season, Monaco’s Ligue 1 record stands at 13 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats, with an average of 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The team’s attacking efficiency has been a key factor in their resurgence, with several players contributing regularly to the scoresheet. In fact, both teams have scored in the second half in 12 of Monaco’s last 19 away matches, showing their ability to stay competitive until the final whistle.
Defensively, Monaco have also improved, keeping a clean sheet in their last outing. Although they have had to cope with several absences, the squad depth has allowed them to maintain consistency. Their away form has been particularly impressive, with the team showing confidence and composure in challenging environments.
In terms of goal patterns, under 0.5 goals have been recorded in 3 of their last 12 matches, indicating that while they can control games, they are rarely involved in goalless affairs. The last head-to-head between these sides ended 1-3 in favor of Monaco earlier this season, a result that will certainly boost their confidence heading into this clash.
This encounter promises to be a fascinating battle between two teams with contrasting trends. Lyon will rely on their strong home record and the support of their fans to bounce back, while Monaco will aim to extend their winning streak and close the gap to the top four. The hosts have shown defensive discipline at home, but their recent lack of goals could be a concern against a visiting side that has been prolific in recent weeks.
Historically, the head-to-head record between these teams is balanced, with Lyon winning three of the last five meetings and Monaco two. Both sides average 1.4 goals scored and conceded in these encounters, suggesting a competitive and open contest. Given Monaco’s attacking form and Lyon’s need to respond, this match could produce goals, particularly in the second half.
From a statistical perspective, the probabilities indicate a tight contest: Lyon win 50%, Draw 23%, and Monaco win 27%. The Both Teams To Score – Yes market stands at 57%, while Over 2.5 goals also has a 57% likelihood. These figures underline the expectation of an entertaining game with opportunities at both ends.
Lyon vs Monaco prediction from BetMines:
The most likely outcome is a Both Teams To Score – Yes with a 57% probability. Both sides have shown attacking potential, and their recent matches suggest that goals on both ends are highly probable in this Ligue 1 clash.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Olympique Lyonnais
Monaco
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
0
10
1.5
2
8
1
9
2.5
5
5
3
7
3.5
8
2
6
4
4.5
8
2
9
1