The upcoming clash between Once Caldas and Deportivo Pasto promises to be a decisive encounter in the Colombian Liga BetPlay. Scheduled for Saturday night, this match corresponds to round 19 of the competition and carries significant implications for the home side. With only two rounds left in the regular phase, Once Caldas sit just three points away from the top-eight playoff spots. A win here is crucial to keep their hopes alive, especially after a goalless draw against Millonarios that did little to improve their standing. Deportivo Pasto, on the other hand, come into this fixture with little to play for, sitting 17th in the table and already out of contention for the next stage. Despite their recent 4-0 victory over Deportivo Pereira, their poor away form continues to undermine their campaign.

Once Caldas: Form and Key Statistics

Once Caldas currently occupy the 12th position in the Liga BetPlay standings. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with just one win, one draw, and three defeats in their last five matches. During this stretch, they have averaged only 0.4 goals scored per game while conceding 1.8 goals on average. Over the course of the season, their record stands at 15 wins, 11 draws, and 17 losses, with an average of 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. These numbers highlight a team that struggles offensively but remains competitive in tight games.

At home, Once Caldas have historically performed better, particularly against Deportivo Pasto. In their last five head-to-head meetings, the “Blancos Blancos” have recorded three wins, one draw, and one defeat, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding 0.8. Their most recent encounter ended in a 4-0 victory on October 2, 2025, a result that underlines their dominance when playing in Manizales. However, the team’s recent lack of goals remains a concern, as they have seen Under 0.5 goals in five of their last 22 league matches, suggesting a recurring difficulty in breaking down defenses.

Coach and players alike know that this is a must-win scenario. With the home crowd behind them and a favorable historical record, Once Caldas will aim to capitalize on Deportivo Pasto’s weaknesses away from home. A victory would not only boost morale but also keep their playoff hopes alive heading into the final round.

Deportivo Pasto: Form and Key Statistics

Deportivo Pasto approach this fixture with little pressure but also little motivation, as they are mathematically out of playoff contention. Sitting 17th in the table, their season has been marked by inconsistency and poor results on the road. Despite a resounding 4-0 win over Deportivo Pereira in their last outing, the “Fuerza Tricolor” have failed to win any of their last 17 away matches in all competitions, including 16 consecutive away games without victory in the Liga BetPlay.

In their last five matches, Pasto have recorded one win, three draws, and one defeat, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. This recent improvement in attack contrasts sharply with their defensive fragility, especially away from home. Their season record mirrors that of Once Caldas in terms of goals, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, but their inability to perform on the road has been their undoing.

Interestingly, Pasto’s matches have been entertaining in recent weeks. Over 1.5 goals have been scored in each of their last ten games, and there has been at least one goal in the second half in all of them. Moreover, Over 0.5 goals at half time have been recorded in 23 of their last 25 matches, showing that their games tend to open up early. However, their tendency to fall behind early is also evident, having lost at half time in 11 of their last 15 away matches. This pattern could prove costly against a Once Caldas side desperate for points.

Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto: Tactical Overview and Prediction

This fixture presents a clear contrast in motivation and momentum. Once Caldas are fighting for survival in the playoff race, while Deportivo Pasto are playing for pride. The home side’s defensive discipline and Pasto’s poor away record suggest that the hosts have the upper hand. However, Pasto’s recent attacking form could still make this a competitive match, especially if Once Caldas fail to take early control.

Historically, this matchup has favored the home team, and the current context reinforces that trend. Once Caldas’ need for victory, combined with Pasto’s travel struggles, makes the hosts the logical favorites. Expect Once Caldas to adopt a proactive approach, pressing high and seeking to exploit Pasto’s defensive lapses, particularly in the first half. Meanwhile, Pasto will likely rely on counterattacks and set pieces, hoping to replicate their recent scoring efficiency.

Given the statistical balance and the stakes involved, this encounter could feature a cautious start but open up as the game progresses. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, yet the psychological edge and home advantage lean heavily toward Once Caldas.

Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is a Once Caldas win (1) with a 53% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 26%, while a Deportivo Pasto win (2) stands at 22%.