Following the heavy investments made last summer, Atletico Madrid fans surely expected a very different season from the one now nearing its end. With just three matchdays left in La Liga, Los Colchoneros have only one goal left: secure third place behind Real Madrid and, why not, try to overtake them, considering the five-point gap currently separating the two sides. Diego Simeone's team, still enjoying the club’s full confidence, delivered a stunning 4-0 win over Real Sociedad in the last round, driven by an unstoppable Alexander Sorloth who netted all four goals. Thanks to last Saturday’s victory, Atletico Madrid have secured their minimum season objective: qualification for next year’s UEFA Champions League — one of the three competitions (along with the Copa del Rey and La Liga) in which they failed to make a significant mark this year, having been knocked out on penalties by Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid in the round of 16. To defend their third-place spot from Athletic Club (Atletico Bilbao), Simeone’s men are aiming to collect as many points as possible in the final three rounds, starting with the Matchday 36 clash away to Osasuna. At El Sadar Stadium, Vicente Moreno’s side, coming off a draw against Real Betis, is seeking an upset to stay within reach of the European spots, hoping to improve their current 11th position. Thanks to Spain’s UEFA ranking, eight La Liga teams will qualify for European competitions next season, and Osasuna still has a shot at eighth place, which grants access to the UEFA Conference League — currently just two points away. To pull it off, Budimir and co. need to rediscover the form they showed in April, when they went unbeaten in the league with three wins and a draw.

Osasuna Recent Form and Key Stats

Osasuna are coming off a solid 1-1 away draw against Real Betis, a sign of recovery after their heavy 4-2 defeat at Villarreal the previous weekend. Before the slip-up against the Yellow Submarine, they put together a five-match unbeaten streak, with three wins and two draws. With 45 points (10 wins, 15 draws, 10 losses), they are still in the race for that valuable eighth place.

The team from Pamplona has scored 43 goals and conceded 51, averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game. At home, El Sadar has been a fortress — they’ve taken 30 points there, with 8 wins, 6 draws, and only 3 losses. Since the beginning of 2025, they’ve lost just one of their seven La Liga home games, drawing three (including a 0-0 against Real Madrid) and winning three — their most recent being a 1-0 over Sevilla.

Atletico Madrid Recent Form and Key Stats

Atletico Madrid sealed their place in the next Champions League with an emphatic 4-0 victory over Real Sociedad last Saturday. Alexander Sorloth was the hero, scoring all four goals in the first half and bringing his season total to 21 goals. Over their last five games, Atletico have recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 3.

Simeone’s men have now gone three consecutive matches without conceding and are statistically the best defensive side away from home in La Liga, with just 13 goals conceded in 17 away matches. Their away record stands at 7 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses — three of those losses coming in 2025 in somewhat surprising fashion against Leganes, Getafe, and Las Palmas. Their last away win was a 2-1 over Sevilla on April 6.

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Tactical Overview

Atletico Madrid approach this fixture without the pressure of needing a result, having already secured Champions League football. Their main goal in the final three matchdays is to keep hold of third place while possibly challenging Real Madrid for second.

Osasuna, on the other hand, would break into the top eight with a win, especially considering the tough fixtures ahead for Rayo Vallecano (vs. Real Betis) and Mallorca (vs. Real Madrid). The task won’t be easy, as they face the best defensive team away from home in La Liga. However, a stat in Osasuna’s favor is that they have scored in every home match this season.

The reverse fixture, played in January, ended 1-0 to Atletico Madrid with a decisive goal from Julian Alvarez. That match continued a trend — seven of the last eight meetings between these sides have ended with fewer than four total goals.

Given Simeone's usual defensive solidity, the Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid prediction by the BetMines algorithm forecasts a match where both teams could find the net, but total goals are unlikely to exceed four.

• Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts a match with Under 3.5 goals at 71%.
  
  
• Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid prediction from the BetMines Algorithm predicts a match with Over 3.5 goals at 29%.

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Predicted Lineups

OSASUNA (4-2-3-1): Herrera; Areso, Boyomo, Catena, Bretones; Ibanez, Torro; Ru. Garcia, Oroz, Zaragoza; Budimir. Coach: Moreno

ATLETICO MADRID (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Gimenez, Le Normand, Galán; G. Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Lino; Sorloth, J. Alvarez. Coach: Simeone