The fourth round of the FA Cup brings an intriguing clash between Oxford United and Sunderland at Kassam Stadium. The hosts, representing the EFL Championship, will be eager to make the most of their home advantage against a Premier League opponent. This fixture marks the fourth time these two sides have met in this competition, and both will be determined to progress to the next stage. With Oxford seeking to end their poor record in this round and Sunderland looking to bounce back from recent league setbacks, the stage is set for a competitive encounter.

Oxford United’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Oxford United return to the FA Cup fourth round for the first time since the 2019–20 season, ending a run of early exits in recent years. Their journey to this stage included a dramatic 4-3 penalty shootout victory over Milton Keynes Dons in the third round, a result that finally broke their third-round curse. However, their overall form coming into this tie is far from ideal. The U’s are winless in their last four matches across all competitions, including a heavy 3-0 home defeat to Norwich City on February 10, 2026.

In their last five outings, Oxford have recorded just one win, one draw, and three defeats, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match. Their attacking struggles have been evident, while defensive lapses have cost them valuable points. In the FA Cup, they have drawn once this season, scoring and conceding one goal on average. Historically, Oxford’s matches tend to be low-scoring affairs: Under 3.5 goals have been recorded in 19 of their last 20 games, and in 10 consecutive home fixtures in this competition. Despite that, Over 1.5 goals have been scored in each of their last 12 FA Cup matches, suggesting that while they rarely engage in high-scoring thrillers, goals are still likely to come.

• Oxford United have lost at half time in their last 3 FA Cup matches.


• Under 0.5 goals have been scored in 2 of their last 10 home matches.


• Over 7.5 corners have been taken in 27 of their last 29 matches.

These numbers highlight a team that often starts slowly but tends to see more action as the game progresses. Oxford’s challenge will be to tighten up defensively while finding a way to convert their limited chances against a higher-tier opponent.

Sunderland’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Sunderland approach this FA Cup tie looking to rediscover their rhythm after a difficult spell in the Premier League. Their most recent outing ended in a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Liverpool on February 11, marking their second consecutive league loss without scoring. Despite these setbacks, the Black Cats remain a dangerous side, particularly when facing lower-division opposition.

In their last five matches, Sunderland have registered two wins and three defeats, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Their FA Cup campaign began with a tense third-round encounter against Everton, which they eventually won 3-0 on penalties after a goalless draw. Like Oxford, Sunderland’s matches tend to be tight: Under 3.5 goals have been recorded in 37 of their last 40 games, and in 20 of their last 21 away fixtures. This pattern suggests a disciplined defensive approach, often prioritizing structure over attacking flair.

• At least one team failed to score at half time in 37 of Sunderland’s last 40 matches.


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half have been scored in 18 of their last 20 matches.


• They have won three of their last four away meetings with Oxford United.

While Sunderland’s recent league form has dipped, their away record against Oxford is encouraging. Historically, they have dominated this fixture, winning three of the last five head-to-head meetings and scoring an average of 1.6 goals per match. Their experience at the top level and ability to manage tight games could prove decisive in this knockout encounter.

Oxford United vs Sunderland Analysis and Prediction

This FA Cup tie promises to be a fascinating battle between two sides with contrasting ambitions. Oxford United will rely on home support and the motivation of a potential upset, but their recent performances suggest they may struggle to contain a Premier League opponent. Their tendency to concede early and their lack of cutting edge in attack could be problematic against a team as organized as Sunderland.

For the visitors, this match represents an opportunity to regain confidence after back-to-back league defeats. Their defensive consistency and ability to control the tempo of games make them slight favorites. Given both teams’ statistical trends, a low-scoring contest appears likely, with Under 2.5 goals being a plausible outcome. However, Sunderland’s superior quality and experience should give them the edge in key moments.

Historically, Oxford have struggled in this stage of the competition, suffering four consecutive eliminations in the fourth round. Sunderland, meanwhile, have shown resilience in cup competitions and will be eager to extend their dominance over Oxford. The most recent head-to-head ended 2-0 in favor of the Black Cats, reinforcing their status as favorites.

Oxford United vs Sunderland prediction by BetMines:
Sunderland win (2) with a probability of 41%. The draw (X) stands at 28%, while an Oxford United win (1) is estimated at 31%. Given the trends, a narrow away victory looks the most likely outcome.