The second leg of the Liga MX quarter-finals brings an exciting clash between Pachuca and Toluca. The match will take place at the Estadio Hidalgo, where the home side will try to defend the narrow 1-0 advantage obtained in the first leg. That result gives Pachuca the possibility to advance even with a draw, while Toluca must win to keep their hopes alive. Both teams have shown strong performances throughout the season, and this encounter promises to be a tense and tactical battle for a place in the semi-finals.

Pachuca’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Pachuca approach this decisive match after a solid campaign in Liga MX. According to the season data, they have recorded 17 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. In their last five matches, Pachuca have achieved 3 wins and suffered 2 defeats, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Their recent 0-1 victory against Toluca on May 4, 2026, was crucial in gaining the upper hand in this tie.

At home, Pachuca have been particularly competitive, winning at half time in 6 of their last 10 home matches in Liga MX. This shows their ability to start games strongly and control the tempo early on. Their defensive structure has also been reliable, often limiting opponents to few clear chances. With the advantage from the first leg, Pachuca are expected to adopt a balanced approach, focusing on maintaining possession and exploiting counter-attacks when possible.

• Ranking in Liga MX: 1st place


• Last 5 matches: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats


• Average goals scored: 1.8 per match


• Average goals conceded: 1.6 per match


• Head-to-head record vs Toluca: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

Toluca’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Toluca come into this second leg determined to overturn the deficit. They currently sit 2nd in Liga MX and have shown impressive consistency throughout the season, with 22 wins, 11 draws, and 8 defeats. Their attacking power is reflected in their average of 1.9 goals scored per game, while their defense has been one of the best in the league, conceding only 1.0 goal per match.

In their last five matches, Toluca have registered 2 wins and 3 defeats, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Their most recent result, a 4-0 win against Los Angeles FC on May 7, 2026, demonstrated their attacking potential and ability to dominate when in form. However, away from home, they have sometimes struggled to maintain consistency, with Under 0.5 goals scored in 4 of their last 14 away matches in Liga MX. To progress, Toluca will need to find the right balance between attacking ambition and defensive discipline.

• Ranking in Liga MX: 2nd place


• Last 5 matches: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 defeats


• Average goals scored: 2.4 per match


• Average goals conceded: 1.6 per match


• Last result: 4-0 win vs Los Angeles FC

Pachuca vs Toluca Tactical Overview

The first leg between these two sides was a tight affair, ending 0-1 in favor of Pachuca. Historically, their encounters have often been balanced, with both teams averaging 1.6 goals scored and conceded in head-to-head meetings. Pachuca’s home advantage could play a decisive role, especially given their strong first-half performances and ability to manage narrow leads.

Toluca, on the other hand, will likely push forward from the start, needing at least one goal to stay alive in the tie. Their attacking statistics suggest they are capable of creating multiple chances, but they must be cautious not to leave spaces behind for Pachuca’s quick transitions. Given the stakes and the defensive solidity of both teams, the match could once again be decided by small details, with few goals expected overall.

• Last head-to-head: Pachuca 1–0 Toluca (2026-05-04)


• Average total goals in head-to-head: 3.2


• BTTS (Both Teams To Score): 58% probability


• Over 2.5 goals: 58% probability


• Under 2.5 goals: 42% probability

BetMines Prediction

Based on the available data and recent performances, the BetMines prediction for this match points towards an Away Win (2) with a 41% probability. Toluca’s attacking form and motivation to overturn the first-leg result could give them the edge, although Pachuca’s home strength means the contest is likely to remain close until the final whistle.

Pachuca vs Toluca prediction by BetMines:
Away Win (2) with 41% probability.