Pafos FC host Riga in the Europa Conference League on Thursday, October 22, with kick-off scheduled for 16:45 local time. The teams enter the fixture in contrasting form: Pafos have won two of their last five matches, while Riga are unbeaten over the same stretch with four victories and a draw. Their Conference League averages also point to different challenges. Pafos have conceded 2.0 goals per game in the competition, whereas Riga have conceded 1.0. Yet the hosts created chances in their defeat to Atalanta, making this a test of whether they can turn attacking opportunities into goals against visitors who have been difficult to beat.

Pafos FC's Recent Form and Key Stats

Pafos FC lost 3-1 to Atalanta in their Conference League opener. They had 35% possession and registered 0.94 expected goals, but still created three big chances and put five shots on target. The result showed that Pafos could threaten despite spending less time on the ball; it also left them needing a better outcome from their next opportunities.

Their most recent match, a 0-0 home draw with APOEL on October 19, offered a different picture. Across their last five games in all competitions, Pafos have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded. Their supplied Conference League record stands at no wins, two draws and one loss, with averages of 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match.

There are two notable home and goals trends for the hosts. Pafos have not trailed at half-time in any of their last 17 home matches. Also, only three of their last 14 home games ended with fewer than one total goal, while that happened twice across their last ten matches overall. In the Conference League, their last 11 matches have each featured at least one second-half goal. Those figures leave room for a response from Pafos even if this contest takes time to open up, though their goalless draw with APOEL is a recent reminder that chances do not always produce a goal.

Riga's Recent Form and Key Stats

Riga began their Conference League campaign with a 1-1 draw against Kairat Almaty. Mohamed Badamosi missed a penalty in that game, then scored the winner in Riga's 2-1 victory over Super Nova on October 18. The Super Nova result extended Riga's unbeaten run across all competitions to eight matches.

The visitors have won four and drawn one of their last five games, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 0.6 per match. Their broader Conference League record is three wins, three draws and one defeat, with averages of 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Riga have also scored at least once in 21 of their last 22 matches and avoided defeat in 37 of their last 40.

Riga's away results give them another reason for confidence: they have won their last four competitive matches on the road, keeping three clean sheets in that sequence. Scoring so consistently while producing those away shutouts makes them a demanding opponent for a Pafos side that failed to score against APOEL. The question for Riga is whether they can maintain that defensive record against hosts who created three big chances in their European opener.

Pafos FC vs Riga Match Analysis

This Europa Conference League preview brings together two trends that do not point neatly in the same direction. Riga's long scoring run and Pafos' three big chances against Atalanta suggest opportunities at either end are possible. On the other hand, Riga have kept clean sheets in three of their last four competitive away wins, and Pafos arrive after a scoreless result. The hosts' average of 1.0 goal across their last five matches adds to the uncertainty about whether they can convert their chances this time.

The supplied win probabilities are relatively close: 42% for Pafos FC, 34% for Riga and 24% for the draw. Pafos are listed 32nd and Riga 21st in the Europa Conference League rankings. Their last listed head-to-head meeting was a 2-1 Riga win on July 14, 2017, though the teams' more recent form offers a fuller basis for assessing Thursday's match.

For Pafos, staying level early has been a consistent feature of their home results, but the second half may still bring a decisive moment: each of their last 11 Conference League matches has had at least one goal after the break. Riga, meanwhile, arrive with the stronger five-game record and a run of away victories built partly on clean sheets. Pafos have shown they can create chances in Europe; the central issue is whether they can finish one against visitors who have recently limited opponents on the road.

Pafos FC vs Riga prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (No) with 52% probability.