Palmeiras host Fluminense at Allianz Parque on October 22 for the second leg of their Copa Libertadores semifinal. A 2-1 away victory in the first leg gives Palmeiras the advantage, and a draw would be enough for them to progress. Fluminense must overturn that deficit on a ground where the hosts have won six consecutive matches. The visitors also arrive after three straight defeats, making this a demanding test of their ability to respond when the tie is at stake.

Palmeiras' Recent Form and Key Stats

Palmeiras have won four and drawn one of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding just 0.4 per game. Their latest result was a 2-0 win away to Athletico PR on October 17. In this season's Copa Libertadores, they have recorded six wins, three draws and two defeats, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded.

Home form is a major part of the semifinal picture. Palmeiras have won their last six matches at Allianz Parque and kept clean sheets in six of their previous nine games there. They have also been ahead at half-time in each of their last five home matches. More broadly, they have not trailed at the break in 17 consecutive matches, including their last 14 at home. Those figures underline how difficult it has been for opponents to establish an early advantage against them.

The first leg showed that Palmeiras can protect a lead while still finding chances to score. Abel Ferreira's side went 2-0 ahead through an approach built around defending and counterattacking, before a late error by goalkeeper Carlos Miguel reduced the margin to one goal. José Manuel López scored one of Palmeiras' goals in that match. Vitor Roque remains a doubt for the return leg because of injury.

Fluminense's Recent Form and Key Stats

Fluminense need a result after losing the first leg at home, but their recent form offers little comfort. They have suffered three successive defeats, including Brasileirao losses to Santos and Flamengo. The Santos match ended 2-1 on October 18, while Flamengo beat them 1-0. Across their last five games, Fluminense have two wins and three defeats, with averages of 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.

Their away record presents another obstacle. Fluminense have won only once in their last 15 matches away from home, and three of their last four away outings have ended in defeat. Their most recent Copa Libertadores trip ended in a 2-1 loss to Platense, although their aggregate advantage was enough to take them through that round. In this season's competition overall, Fluminense have three wins, four draws and four defeats, averaging 1.1 goals both scored and conceded.

There are also patterns in their away Libertadores results that matter for this second leg. Fewer than 3.5 total goals have been scored in each of Fluminense's last 12 away matches in the competition, and they have failed to lead at half-time in 19 of their last 20. Fluminense can draw on the experience of Hulk, Ganso, Thiago Silva and Fabio, but they must turn that experience into a performance strong enough to reverse the first-leg score.

Palmeiras vs Fluminense Match Analysis

The 2-1 first-leg result shapes the return match: Palmeiras can advance without winning on the night, whereas Fluminense must find a way back into the tie away from home. For the hosts, the challenge is to use their advantage without allowing the late goal conceded in the first leg to become a turning point. Their six-match home winning streak and recent defensive record provide a strong basis for that task.

Fluminense's need to recover the deficit makes their away form particularly relevant. One victory in 15 trips is a difficult record to bring into a semifinal at Allianz Parque, especially against a Palmeiras side unbeaten in its last five matches. The visitors have scored an average of 1.8 goals across their most recent five games, so their attacking output cannot be dismissed. However, their three defeats in that same stretch show that scoring alone has not consistently produced results.

The head-to-head figures offer another point of comparison: Palmeiras have three wins, one draw and one defeat in the five meetings covered by the supplied record, including the first-leg victory on October 15. Fluminense still have an opportunity to change the course of the semifinal, but Palmeiras enter the return fixture with the stronger recent results, a lead in the tie and a sustained run of wins at home.

Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction from BetMines: Palmeiras win (1) with 60% probability.