The second round of the 2026 Brazilian Serie A brings an intriguing clash between Palmeiras and Vitória, scheduled for Wednesday, February 4, at 21:30 (Brasília time). The match will take place at the Arena Barueri, where the home side will look to secure their first win of the league campaign, while the visitors aim to maintain their perfect start. Both teams arrive with contrasting moods after the opening round — Palmeiras drew away, while Vitória celebrated a home victory.

Palmeiras’ Recent Form and Key Stats

Palmeiras began their Serie A journey with a 2-2 draw against Atlético Mineiro, a result that can be considered positive given it came away from home. However, their recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded two wins, one draw, and two defeats, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. The team also suffered a 1-0 loss to Botafogo-SP on February 1, which exposed some defensive vulnerabilities.

Despite these setbacks, Palmeiras remain a formidable force at home. They have avoided defeat at half time in 18 of their last 20 home matches in Serie A, showing resilience and control in the early stages of games. However, goal production has been modest, with Under 0.5 goals recorded in their last two home league fixtures. Historically, the Alviverde have dominated this matchup, winning 26 of the 47 previous encounters against Vitória, and losing only once in the last six meetings.

• Ranking in Serie A: 10th place


• Last 5 matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats


• Average goals scored: 1.2 | Average conceded: 1.6


• Under 0.5 goals in last 2 home Serie A matches


• Unbeaten at half time in 18 of last 20 home games

In terms of squad news, Palmeiras are dealing with several absences. Four players — Felipe Anderson, Lucas Evangelista, Paulinho, and Figueiredo — remain sidelined due to injuries. Even so, the team is expected to field a strong lineup, with key attacking options ready to make an impact in front of their fans.

Vitória’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Vitória arrive in São Paulo full of confidence after a 2-0 home win over Remo in their Serie A opener. The result placed them third in the standings, reflecting their strong start to the season. Over their last five matches in all competitions, the Rubro-Negro have collected four wins and just one defeat, averaging 1.6 goals scored and conceding only 1.0 per game. Their defensive organization has been a key factor in this positive run.

However, playing away from home has often been a challenge for Vitória. They have lost at half time in six of their last ten away league matches, and their attacking output tends to drop on the road. In fact, Under 0.5 goals have been recorded in three of their last fourteen away Serie A fixtures. Despite these numbers, the team’s recent momentum and confidence could make them a tricky opponent for Palmeiras.

• Ranking in Serie A: 3rd place


• Last 5 matches: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat


• Average goals scored: 1.6 | Average conceded: 1.0


• Under 0.5 goals in 2 of last 10 Serie A matches


• Lost at half time in 6 of last 10 away games

Vitória will be without three players for this encounter — goalkeeper Lucas Arcanjo, defender Edu Ribeiro, and midfielder Rúben Ismael — all recovering from injuries. Even so, the team is expected to maintain its core lineup, which has delivered consistent performances in recent weeks.

Palmeiras vs Vitória Analysis and Prediction

This fixture brings together two sides with contrasting ambitions and styles. Palmeiras are eager to bounce back from a trophyless 2025 season and reassert their dominance in Brazilian football. Their home advantage and superior squad depth make them favorites, especially given their strong historical record against Vitória. On the other hand, Vitória enter the match in good form but face a significant test against one of the league’s most complete teams.

Statistically, Palmeiras have been involved in low-scoring home matches recently, while Vitória’s away games also tend to produce few goals. The last head-to-head encounter between these sides ended 0-0 in November 2025, reinforcing the likelihood of another tight contest. However, Palmeiras’ attacking potential and home strength could prove decisive this time.

Given the data and current form, the most probable outcome points toward a home win (1). Palmeiras’ ability to control matches early and their solid record at Arena Barueri make them the logical favorites to secure three points.

Palmeiras vs Vitória prediction from BetMines: Home Win (1) with 62% probability.