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Prediction published on Nov 4, 2025 9:07 PM by Dario in Europe - Europa League | Modified on Nov 4, 2025 9:18 PM
The Europa League returns to Thessaloniki this Thursday night as PAOK welcome Young Boys to the Toumba Stadium for Matchday 4 of the League Phase. The Greek side currently sit 20th in the standings, while the Swiss champions occupy 13th place. With both teams still fighting for qualification, this clash promises to be a crucial one in shaping their European ambitions.
PAOK Thessaloniki have completely turned their season around after a slow start in Europe. Following a disappointing draw and defeat in their first two Europa League fixtures, the Greek outfit have since found their rhythm, stringing together an impressive run of six consecutive victories across all competitions. Their most recent triumph, a commanding 5-0 win over Panserraikos on November 2, underlined their attacking prowess and growing confidence.
During this winning streak, PAOK have scored a remarkable 20 goals, averaging more than three per game, while conceding less than one on average. Their home form has been particularly dominant — the Toumba Stadium has become a fortress, with eight clean sheets in their last ten home matches in all competitions. Moreover, they have not trailed at half-time in 18 of their last 20 home games, a testament to their strong starts and defensive discipline.
In the Europa League, PAOK’s matches have generally been tight affairs, with Under 0.5 goals scored in three of their last ten home fixtures in the competition. However, their recent attacking surge suggests they are now capable of breaking down even the most organized defenses. With momentum on their side and a passionate home crowd behind them, Razvan Lucescu’s men will be confident of extending their winning run.
Young Boys arrive in Greece on the back of a mixed run of results. After a heavy 4-1 defeat to Panathinaikos in their opening Europa League match, the Swiss champions responded well with victories over FCSB and Ludogorets, followed by a goalless draw against Basel in the domestic league on November 2. They are now unbeaten in their last four matches across all competitions, recording two wins and two draws.
Despite their recent improvement, Young Boys have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding two or more goals in five of their last six games. Their away record is respectable — five wins, two draws, and three defeats in their last ten trips — but they have lost at half-time in each of their last three away fixtures, suggesting a tendency to start slowly on the road. Offensively, they remain dangerous, having failed to score in only two of those ten away matches, but their defensive lapses could prove costly against a PAOK side in red-hot form.
With an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last five outings, Young Boys will need to tighten up at the back if they are to take anything from this trip to Thessaloniki. Their previous defeat to Greek opposition earlier in the campaign will also be fresh in their minds, adding psychological weight to this encounter.
This fixture brings together two sides with contrasting trajectories. PAOK are flying high, combining attacking flair with defensive solidity, while Young Boys continue to search for consistency away from home. The Greek side’s recent form suggests they have found the perfect balance between aggression and control, often taking early leads and managing games effectively thereafter.
Young Boys, on the other hand, rely heavily on their offensive power to outscore opponents. Their open style of play has produced entertaining matches but also left them exposed defensively. Against a PAOK team that thrives on quick transitions and clinical finishing, this could be a risky approach. The hosts’ ability to press high and exploit defensive gaps may prove decisive, especially given the visitors’ struggles in the first halves of their recent away games.
Historically, Greek teams have been difficult to beat at home in European competitions, and PAOK’s recent record reinforces that trend. With their confidence soaring and their attack firing on all cylinders, the hosts will look to capitalize on their momentum and secure another vital three points in their quest for qualification.
The most likely outcome is a PAOK Thessaloniki win (1) with a 55% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 24%, while a Young Boys win (2) stands at 21%.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
PAOK
Young Boys
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
0
10
1.5
2
8
1
9
2.5
4
6
4
6
3.5
7
3
8
2
4.5
9
1
8
2