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Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea Prediction: Match Preview and Analysis | Champions League 11-03-2026

Paris Saint Germain

5 - 2

FT

Chelsea

Parc des Princes
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández
moderate rain 8.65 °C

Prediction published on Mar 10, 2026 3:03 AM by Dario in Europe - Champions League | Modified on Mar 10, 2026 3:03 AM

The UEFA Champions League returns with a blockbuster clash as Paris Saint Germain host Chelsea at Parc des Princes for the first leg of their round of 16 tie. This encounter rekindles the rivalry that flared up during their Club World Cup final nine months ago, promising another high-intensity battle between two of Europe’s most ambitious sides. The winner on aggregate will progress to the quarter-finals, where they will face either Galatasaray or Liverpool. With both teams boasting strong attacking records, fans can expect a thrilling night in Paris.


Paris Saint Germain’s Recent Form and Key Stats


Paris Saint Germain enter this crucial fixture after a 1-3 defeat to Monaco in Ligue 1, a result that ended their four-match unbeaten streak. Despite that setback, the reigning European champions remain a formidable force, having scored in each of their last 12 matches across all competitions. Their Champions League campaign so far has been solid, with a record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.


At home, PSG have been particularly consistent. They have found the net in 19 of their last 20 Champions League matches at Parc des Princes, and in 19 of those, there has been at least one goal scored in the second half. Their attacking depth remains impressive, with Ousmane Dembele returning from injury to join Bradley Barcola, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Goncalo Ramos—each of whom has scored at least nine goals this season. Desire Doue has also been a key contributor, netting four of his nine goals in this competition.


However, injuries continue to trouble the French champions. Joao Neves remains sidelined with an ankle problem, while Fabian Ruiz, Senny Mayulu, and Quentin Ndjantou are still unavailable. Despite these absences, PSG’s attacking firepower and home advantage make them a dangerous opponent for any visiting side.



  • PSG have scored in 19 of their last 20 home matches in the Champions League.

  • They have not trailed at half-time in 20 of their last 22 matches in the competition.

  • Over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half in 28 of their last 31 matches.


Chelsea’s Recent Form and Key Stats


Chelsea arrive in Paris after a 2-2 draw against Wrexham in the FA Cup, a result that extended their unbeaten run to three matches. The London club have been in strong form in Europe, finishing first in their Champions League group with 5 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. They have also scored in 22 of their last 23 matches, underlining their attacking consistency.


In the Champions League, Chelsea have a remarkable record against French opposition, winning six consecutive matches. Their recent performances have been driven by Joao Pedro, who has contributed to 13 goals in the last 12 games and leads the team with 18 goals this season. The Brazilian forward has been in excellent form, scoring three times in his last two appearances. However, the Blues will once again be without Estevao and Jamie Gittens, both sidelined with hamstring injuries.


Under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea’s attacking play has been fluid and efficient. They scored 17 goals in the league stage, including a memorable 3-0 victory over Barcelona. Their ability to perform away from home has also been impressive, with goals scored in each of their last 14 away fixtures. This consistency will be crucial as they face a PSG side that rarely fails to score at home.



  • Chelsea have scored in 22 of their last 23 matches in all competitions.

  • Over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half in each of their last 17 matches.

  • They have scored in all of their last 14 away games.


PSG vs Chelsea Tactical Overview and Prediction


This tie brings together two teams that thrive on attacking football but have shown defensive vulnerabilities. PSG’s attacking quartet will look to exploit Chelsea’s back line, which has conceded an average of 1.2 goals per match in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s pace and creativity in transition could trouble a PSG defense that has looked shaky since the start of the year.


Historically, these sides have met eight times in the Champions League, with PSG winning three and Chelsea two. The most recent encounter saw Chelsea claim a narrow victory in the Club World Cup final, adding extra motivation for the hosts to respond. Given both teams’ attacking form and the statistical trends pointing toward goals in the second half, this match is expected to be open and entertaining.


With both teams averaging over two goals per game in this competition, the likelihood of a high-scoring affair is strong. The combination of PSG’s home scoring streak and Chelsea’s attacking momentum suggests that goals will be plentiful at Parc des Princes.


PSG vs Chelsea prediction by BetMines:
Over 2.5 goals with 59% probability.

Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea - Predictions

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Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea: Pre-match Stats Comparison

This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams

Paris Saint Germain

Chelsea

Under

Over

Under

Over

0.5

0%

0

100%

10

0%

0

100%

10

1.5

10%

1

90%

9

30%

3

70%

7

2.5

40%

4

60%

6

40%

4

60%

6

3.5

80%

8

20%

2

80%

8

20%

2

4.5

90%

9

10%

1

90%

9

10%

1

BetMines

Standings of Paris Saint Germain and Chelsea in Champions League

Who will win ?

Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea: Frequently asked questions

Can’t find the anwser you’re looking for ? Reach out to customer support team.
When will Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea be played?
The Champions League match between Paris Saint Germain and Chelsea will be played on March 11, 2026 at 20:00.
Where will Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea be played?
The match between Paris Saint Germain and Chelsea will be played at Parc des Princes, Paris - Europe
Who will referee Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea?
The referee for the match will be Alejandro José Hernández Hernández.
What are the 1X2 betting odds for Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea in the Champions League?
The odds are: Paris Saint Germain to win 2.05, draw 3.60, Chelsea to win 3.40.
What are the betting odds for Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea for Over/Under 2.5 goals in the Champions League?
The odds are Over 2.5 at 1.66 and Under 2.5 at 2.20.
Will both Paris Saint Germain and Chelsea score in the Champions League?
The odds for both teams to score are 1.53, while the odds for at least one team not to score are 2.37.
What is the most likely correct score for Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea in the Champions League?
The most likely correct score is 1-1, with odds of 7.
What are the head-to-head results between Paris Saint Germain and Chelsea?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Paris Saint Germain and Chelsea, Paris Saint Germain won 2 times, Chelsea won 1, and 2 ended in a draw.

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