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Prediction published on Sep 18, 2026 1:05 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Sep 18, 2026 1:05 PM
Parma host Genoa at the Stadio Ennio Tardini on September 20, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 13:00 local time. This fifth-round Serie A fixture brings together two teams still searching for their first league victory of the season. Parma are 17th and Genoa 19th, with both sides recording one draw and three defeats across their opening four matches. Their attacking numbers have also been modest, as each team has averaged only 0.5 goals per game in the competition. With Carlos Cuesta and Daniele De Rossi under pressure following the difficult start, the meeting represents an important opportunity to change direction before the season develops further.
Parma enter this match after losing 2-1 away to Como on September 14. New signing Romero scored Parma's only goal, but it was not enough to prevent another defeat. Their sole Serie A point came from a previous 1-1 draw against Monza.
The hosts have gone five matches without a victory, registering one draw and four losses during that sequence. They have averaged 0.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across those five fixtures. Their league record this season stands at no wins, one draw and three defeats, with averages of 0.5 goals for and 1.5 against per match.
Parma's lack of efficiency in front of goal is reflected by a conversion rate of just 5.6% and an expected-goals total of 2.9. Their first-half performances have also been problematic: Cuesta's team have been behind at the interval in each of their last three matches and have failed to lead at half-time in 26 of their previous 28 Serie A games. At the same time, fewer than 1.5 first-half goals have been recorded in Parma's last 13 league fixtures.
The second half has consistently produced more activity. At least one goal after the interval has been recorded in each of Parma's last 14 Serie A matches and in their previous 10 home league games. Since December, their last 14 Serie A fixtures at home have produced four wins, four draws and six defeats, without Parma recording the same result in two consecutive home matches.
Diallo is doubtful, while Nicolussi Caviglia remains unavailable through injury. Those absences add another consideration for a side already struggling to turn its attacking opportunities into goals.
Genoa arrive in Parma after defeating Südtirol 1-0 in the Coppa Italia on September 15. Vasquez scored the late winner, giving Genoa their only victory of the season so far. However, he will miss this match through suspension after receiving a red card in the previous league round.
In Serie A, Genoa have matched Parma's record of one draw and three defeats from four games. They have averaged 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per league fixture. Across their last five matches in all competitions, De Rossi's team have one win, one draw and three losses, scoring an average of 0.6 goals and conceding 1.6.
The broader league sequence is equally difficult. Genoa have collected only three points from their last nine Serie A games, drawing three and losing six while scoring just three goals. Their 4.3% conversion rate and 3.8 expected goals underline the problems they have experienced in the final third.
Away from home, the visitors have failed to score in four consecutive Serie A fixtures, collecting two draws and suffering two defeats. Four of their last 11 away league matches have ended without a single goal being scored by either side. Like Parma, Genoa have also been behind at half-time in each of their previous three Serie A games.
De Rossi must make changes because Vasquez is suspended, while Havel and Venturino are unavailable due to injury. Finding an effective attacking solution will be especially important given Genoa's four-game scoring drought on the road.
PARMA (3-5-2): Corvi; Delprato, Troilo, Diego Carlos; Britschgi, Bernabè, Sierro, Keita M., Valeri; Romero, Tourè. Coach: Carlos Cuesta.
GENOA: Bijlow; Marcandalli, Ostigard, Otoa; Ehizibue, Frendrup, Sow, Ellertsson; Baldanzi; Colombo, Osmajic. Coach: Daniele De Rossi.
The available statistics point towards a close Serie A match in which clear chances could be limited. Parma and Genoa have each scored an average of only 0.5 goals per league game this season, while neither side has yet recorded a victory. Their recent head-to-head record reinforces the possibility of another restrained contest.
The most recent meeting ended 0-0 on January 18, 2026, while both encounters last season finished with that same scoreline. Parma have not scored in any of their last four matches against Genoa, their longest such run in the history of this fixture. Across the five-game head-to-head summary, Parma have one win, two draws and two defeats, averaging 0.4 goals both scored and conceded.
The overall history is similarly balanced, with 10 Parma victories, 11 draws and nine Genoa wins from 30 meetings. Genoa are unbeaten on their last three league visits to Parma, earning two victories and one draw. Before the current five-match Serie A sequence without a Parma win, the hosts had beaten Genoa in five consecutive meetings between 2018 and 2020.
The win probabilities give Parma a 40% chance of victory, compared with 30% for the draw and 30% for Genoa. However, the goal markets offer a clearer reflection of the teams' attacking form: the probability of both teams scoring is 44%, while Both Teams To Score (No) is rated at 56%. Under 2.5 goals carries a 63% probability, compared with 37% for Over 2.5.
Both teams have also conceded frequently during the final 15 minutes, so a cautious opening would not necessarily rule out a decisive late moment. Even so, Parma's low conversion rate, Genoa's four consecutive scoreless away matches and the two recent 0-0 meetings all support expectations of a low-scoring contest.
Parma vs Genoa prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 63% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Parma
Genoa
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
1
9
3
7
2.5
5
5
7
3
3.5
10
0
9
1
4.5
10
0
9
1