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Prediction published on Sep 4, 2026 1:07 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Sep 4, 2026 1:07 PM
Parma host Monza at the Stadio Ennio Tardini on September 6, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 13:00 local time. This Serie A third-round fixture brings together two teams still searching for their first points of the league season. Parma have lost to Cagliari and Juventus, while Monza began with defeats against Inter and Udinese. Their cup results offered contrasting signals: Parma were eliminated after a 2-0 defeat to Cremonese, whereas Monza earned a 1-0 victory away to Torino and progressed to the round of 16. With Parma ranked 16th and Monza 18th, both sides urgently need a positive result.
Parma enter the match after four defeats in their last five games, recording only one victory during that sequence. They have averaged 0.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across those five fixtures, while their Serie A numbers are even more concerning. After two league matches, they have no wins or draws, an average of 0.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.
The lack of attacking output is the main issue for the home side. Parma have lost their opening two league fixtures without scoring and then drew another blank in the 2-0 Coppa Italia loss to Cremonese on September 1. Their attack has been reshaped around Romero and El Bilal Touré, but new connections and attacking patterns still need to develop.
Touré is one of the players under the spotlight. His most recent Serie A goal came against Monza on April 21, 2024. His involvement in the current league campaign has yet to produce a significant attacking return: among forwards with no more than one shot, he has played the most minutes, staying on the pitch for 170 minutes.
There are also clear timing trends in Parma’s Serie A matches. The first half has produced under 1.5 goals in their last 11 league games, suggesting that their fixtures regularly begin in controlled fashion. At the same time, their last 12 Serie A matches have all featured at least one goal after the interval.
Monza also have zero points from two Serie A games, but their recent overall record is less negative. Across their last five matches, they have collected two victories, one draw and two defeats, scoring and conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game. Their league campaign has started with averages of 1.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded, highlighting both their attacking production and their defensive problems.
The 1-0 cup win against Torino on September 1 represented a welcome response to the defeats against Inter and Udinese. It also secured Monza’s place in the Coppa Italia round of 16. Their ability to regain possession has been notable in Serie A: Monza have made 90 recoveries over the first two rounds, a total bettered only by Roma with 114 and Inter with 98. Parma, by comparison, have registered 67.
Despite that intensity, Monza’s longer league sequence remains difficult. Their last Serie A draw came against Parma on March 15, 2025, after which they recorded one victory and 10 defeats. Patrick Cutrone is among the players to watch. He made 15 Serie A appearances for Parma during the first part of the previous season and scored his most recent league goal for the club against Atalanta on August 30, 2025. He has also previously found the net against Parma as an opponent.
Parma: Corvi; Delprato, Troilo, Diego Carlos, Valeri; Bernabé, Ordonez, Keita; Britschgi, Touré; Romero.
Monza: Tornqvist; Kouadio, Ziolkowski, Carboni; Birindelli, Folorunsho, Akinsanmiro, Mangas; Colpani; Mota, Cutrone.
Parma will be without Nicolussi Caviglia, who underwent surgery for a groin problem and is expected to remain unavailable for an extended period. Monza have Pessina, Ciurria and Varela listed as unavailable.
The recent head-to-head record favors Parma. The home side are unbeaten in the four-match summary provided, with one win and three draws, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 0.8 conceded. The latest meeting ended 1-1 on March 15, 2025. Looking further back across Serie A and Serie B, Monza have failed to beat Parma in eight consecutive encounters, drawing six and losing two.
Parma’s home record in this fixture also offers encouragement. They have lost only three of their last 17 home meetings with Monza across the top two divisions, registering six victories and eight draws. Monza’s last away win against Parma dates back to January 20, 1980. However, the current win probabilities remain closely balanced: Parma are rated at 35%, the draw at 27% and Monza at 38%.
The central question is whether Parma can end their scoring drought without losing stability at the other end. Monza have already scored three times in Serie A, but an average of 3.5 goals conceded shows how vulnerable they have been under pressure. Parma’s repeated low-scoring first halves, their average of zero league goals and the relatively modest head-to-head averages all point toward a cautious contest. The supplied goal probabilities reinforce that reading, with under 2.5 goals at 53% compared with 48% for over 2.5.
Parma vs Monza prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 53% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Parma
Monza
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
3
7
1
9
2.5
9
1
3
7
3.5
9
1
4
6
4.5
9
1
5
5