On Sunday, 16 November, at the Estádio do Dragão in Porto, Portugal hosts Armenia with only one goal in mind: winning and securing direct qualification for next June’s World Cup. With just one matchday left in Group F, Roberto Martínez’s team has its destiny in its own hands: a victory would be enough to lock up first place and guarantee a ticket to the North American tournament. The situation, however, has become more delicate after the surprising defeat against Ireland, which reduced Portugal’s lead over Hungary — the group’s second-placed side — to just two points, with the Hungarians set to face Ireland in a direct clash. For this reason, any slip-up against Armenia could put everything back into doubt. Armenia, for its part, is now out of the qualification race and arrives in Porto as the bottom team in the group with only three points. With nothing left to lose, the Caucasian side will still try to finish its campaign in the best way possible. Portugal, however, cannot afford any distractions, especially because it will be without its iconic star: Cristiano Ronaldo, sent off in the 13 November defeat in Ireland. A heavy absence, but one that does not change Portugal’s clear mission: win and be one of the most anticipated contenders at the 2026 World Cup.

Portugal's Recent Form and Key Statistics

Portugal is going through a complicated moment, having gone two matches without a win, with one draw and one defeat.

In their most recent match on 13 November, the Portuguese suffered a heavy 2–0 loss away to Ireland, playing much of the second half with ten men due to Cristiano Ronaldo’s first-ever red card with the national team.

Despite this setback, Portugal remains top of Group F with 10 points, the result of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match.

The most struggling unit is the defense: after keeping two clean sheets in the first three group matches, Costa and teammates have shown signs of decline, conceding a total of four goals in the last two matches against Hungary and Ireland.

Roberto Martínez’s side is almost unbeatable at home: they have not lost any of their last 18 home games across all competitions. In their last seven home matches between World Cup Qualifiers and the UEFA Nations League, they have kept a clean sheet only once, scoring and conceding at least one goal in the other six.

Armenia's Recent Form and Key Statistics

Armenia enters this match looking to make its World Cup qualifying campaign slightly less bitter, coming off three consecutive defeats without scoring a single goal. The most recent loss came on 13 November: 0–1 at home against Hungary, with Varga scoring the decisive goal on an assist from Szoboszlai.

The Armenians currently sit bottom of Group F with just 3 points, having collected 1 win and 4 defeats, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 2 conceded per match.

While their attacking struggles are well known — with only 2 goals scored so far — it should be said that the defense has found some stability after conceding five goals in their group opener, precisely against Portugal.

Armenia’s away form is a major concern, with three consecutive away losses between World Cup Qualifiers and the UEFA Nations League. More generally, they have won only one of their last six away games, completing the record with three defeats and one draw.

Portugal vs Armenia Prediction by BetMines

Despite the heavy defeat suffered in Ireland, Portugal clearly still has all the tools needed to beat Armenia without excessive difficulty, thus securing direct qualification for the next World Cup.

BetMines predicts a dominant victory for Roberto Martínez’s men who, even without the suspended Cristiano Ronaldo, can count not only on home advantage but also on a clear technical superiority already shown in the first meeting last September, which ended 5–0 for the Portuguese.

The feeling is that the home side can win by scoring more than two goals, as in the last two meetings against Armenia, while also keeping a clean sheet. It’s worth noting that Armenia has major scoring problems, having netted just two goals in their last five matches.

BetMines therefore not only predicts an easy Portugal win (home win), but also recommends the plays Over 2.5 goals and “at least one team does not score,” with probabilities of 58% and 62% respectively.

Probable lineups Portugal vs Armenia

PORTUGAL (4-3-3): D Costa; N Semedo, Inacio, Dias, Dalot; J Neves, Fernandes, Vitinha; Bernardo, G Ramos, Leao. Manager: Martínez

ARMENIA (4-3-3): Avagyan; Piloyan, Muradyan, Mkrtchyan, Tiknizyan; Hovhannisyan, Muradyan, Spertsyan; Sevikyan, Ranos, Shaghoyan. Manager: Melikyan