On Sunday evening, at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal and Denmark will battle for a spot in the Nations League Final Four. The Portuguese side won the inaugural edition of the tournament in 2019, and now they are aiming for another deep run. These two teams are meeting again just three days after the first leg at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, where Denmark pulled off a surprising 1-0 victory. The decisive goal came from Rasmus Hojlund, who netted his seventh goal for the senior national team, capitalizing on a precise assist from Skov Olsen on the right flank. The Manchester United striker even celebrated with a Cristiano Ronaldo-style celebration, right in front of the Portuguese legend himself. Thanks to Hojlund's goal, Denmark enters this match knowing that a draw will be enough to advance to the Nations League semifinals, where they would face either Germany or Italy. However, Portugal must take full advantage of playing at home, as they need a victory by at least two goals to avoid the extra-time drama. Given Portugal's recent form, this is a feasible task for Cristiano Ronaldo and his teammates, but they will need to perform much better than in the first leg, which head coach Roberto Martinez described as the worst match of the past two years.

Portugal's Recent Form and Key Statistics 

Portugal's defeat to Denmark ended an 8-match unbeaten streak across Euro 2024 qualifiers and the Nations League (4 wins, 4 draws). Despite that setback, their Nations League campaign has been nearly flawless, with 4 wins and 2 draws in Group 1 of League A, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 5.

At home, Portugal has been dominant, winning all three home games in the Nations League against Croatia, Scotland, and Poland. The 5-1 thrashing of Poland is particularly encouraging ahead of this crucial clash with Denmark. Over those three games, Portugal has averaged 3 goals scored and 1 conceded per match.

Denmark's Recent Form and Key Statistics 

Denmark followed up their draw against Serbia in the final group stage match of the Nations League with a huge victory over Portugal. Impressively, this marked their second consecutive clean sheet.

However, to maintain their advantage from the first leg, Denmark must improve their away performances in the Nations League. So far, Riemer’s squad has managed only two draws (Switzerland and Serbia) and one loss (Spain), scoring just 2 goals and conceding 3.

Portugal vs Denmark Prediction and Tactical Overview

Despite Denmark's strong performance, they also missed a crucial penalty, as Christian Eriksen failed to convert from the spot when the score was still 0-0. Portugal, on the other hand, had a night to forget, relying on Diogo Costa’s heroics to keep the scoreline respectable.

In the return leg, expect Cristiano Ronaldo and company to attack aggressively from the start, leveraging their superior offensive firepower to secure the win in 90 minutes and avoid extra time.

Not surprisingly, the BetMines algorithm strongly favors Portugal to win in regulation time. 

• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Portugal vs Denmark predicts the 1 sign at 63%
• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Portugal vs Denmark predicts the X sign at 21%
• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Portugal vs Denmark predicts the 2 sign at 16%

Predicted Lineups Portugal vs Denmark

PORTUGAL (4-3-3): Diogo Costa; Dalot, Ruben Dias, Antonio Silva, Nuno Mendes; Vitinha, Joao Neves, Bruno Fernandes; Pedro Neto, Cristiano Ronaldo, Leao. Coach: Roberto Martinez

DENMARK (4-3-3): Schmeichel; Kristensen, Vestergaard, Andersen, Dorgu; Norgaard, Hjulmand, Eriksen; Damsgaard, Hojlund, Isaksen. Coach: Riemer