At the New Balance Arena, on Sunday, November 30, Atalanta host Fiorentina in one of the most intriguing fixtures of Serie A Matchday 13. The Nerazzurri come into the game after three consecutive league defeats, but their UEFA Champions League win against Eintracht Frankfurt offered important signs of recovery. For Palladino, making his home debut on Atalanta’s bench against his former team, the goal is clear: turn the season around and return to winning ways in Serie A after more than two months, climbing from their current 13th place. Three points would be fundamental to rejoin the race for the European spots, currently eight points away and the stated objective at the start of the season. On the other side, Fiorentina are experiencing an even more complicated period. After last season’s sixth-place finish, the Viola surprisingly find themselves at the bottom of the table and, after twelve matchdays, are still searching for their first victory. A win in Bergamo would allow Vanoli’s men to breathe, leave the relegation zone behind and regain the confidence needed to face the rest of the season.

Atalanta’s Recent Form and Key Stats

After losing their last two league matches against Sassuolo (0-3) and Napoli (3-1), Atalanta earned the first win of the Palladino era, beating Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 away on Matchday 5 of the UEFA Champions League thanks to goals from Lookman, Ederson and De Ketelaere.

Raffaele Palladino’s men are lagging in the standings, sitting 13th with 13 points from 2 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses, averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per match. A difficult period especially for the defense, which has been breached at least once in five of the last seven games across all competitions.

The Bergamo side boast a good home trend, remaining unbeaten in seven of their last eight matches at home across Serie A and the Champions League (5 draws, 2 wins). In their first six Serie A home matches, Atalanta have collected 7 points, winning only once — last September 14 against Lecce — along with four draws and one defeat.

Fiorentina’s Recent Form and Key Stats

A truly dark moment for Fiorentina, still chasing their first league win and coming off seven matches without victory (4 losses, 3 draws). Their latest defeat came on November 27: a 0-1 home loss against AEK Athens in the UEFA Europa Conference League.

Paolo Vanoli’s team sit at the bottom of the Serie A table, tied with Hellas Verona, with only 6 points from 6 draws and 6 losses, averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per match. A team with clear offensive limitations, but even more vulnerable at the back, having conceded in each of their last seven games.

The Viola have disappointed away from home so far, winning only twice in nine away matches across all competitions. In Serie A they have collected just 4 points, all coming from draws — the latest a 2-2 against Genoa — along with defeats against Milan and Inter.

BetMines Prediction for Atalanta vs Fiorentina

According to the BetMines algorithm, Atalanta are strong favourites for the Serie A Matchday 13 clash against Fiorentina: the Nerazzurri’s win probability is estimated at 50%, while the Viola’s chances do not exceed 23%.

Palladino’s team showed encouraging signs in their latest performance against Eintracht Frankfurt, while Vanoli’s side once again highlighted offensive and defensive issues, even losing to a modest opponent like AEK Athens. In this context, the prediction clearly leans toward the home side, eager to return to a league win after more than two months.

Given the visitors’ struggles in front of goal, especially away from home where they average only 0.67 goals per match, a low-scoring contest is likely, potentially with Fiorentina failing to score. Atalanta themselves have not been particularly sharp at home recently, scoring only two goals in their last five home matches.

Considering these factors, in addition to the home win (1), Under 2.5 and the option “at least one team doesn’t score” also appear promising tips, imagining a narrow victory for Atalanta, likely 1-0 or at most 2-0.

Probable Lineups Atalanta vs Fiorentina

ATALANTA (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi; Djimsiti, Hien, Ahanor; Bellanova, Ederson, Pasalic, Zalewski; De Ketelaere, Lookman; Scamacca. Coach: Palladino

FIORENTINA (3-5-2): De Gea; Pongracic, Marì, Ranieri; Fortini, Mandragora, Fagioli, Sohm, Parisi; Kean, Gudmundsson. Coach: Vanoli