It would have been a big match anyway but the last day of the Bundesliga has made the next Bayern Munich - Leipzig a crucial challenge to understand whether the championship can be considered reopened or not. The defeat of Bayern Munich against Mainz added to the victories of Leverkusen and Leipzig, puts, perhaps for the first time this season, the Bavarians under scrutiny in the Bundesliga but the test will also be for Leipzig itself who, disappointed by the unexpected and early elimination in the Champions League, will pour all its energy into the championship, starting from this crucial juncture on Friday evening at the Allianz Arena.

Bayern Munich's shape and main statistics

So, the first KO in the championship for Bayern Munich has arrived in the 2-1 suffered against Mainz and from here we will have to start to examine Kompany's boys who, therefore, will be tested for the first time in a moment, also due to the many absences, that can be defined as delicate even if the overall scenario of the Bundesliga, which presents 10 victories, 3 draws and only 1 defeat, can still be defined undoubtedly positive, in line with the last seasons.

The game will be played at the Allianz Arena and this is an excellent starting point for Bayern Munich who in the Bundesliga have won the last 4 played at home and who, more generally, have triumphed in 6 of the last 7 even if the internal slip in the German Cup against Leverkusen is very recent.

Bayern Munich, however, is strong in its numbers which, in terms of goals scored (42) and goals conceded (12), elect it as the best team in both rankings which therefore, for now, say that the Bavarians are in the top position they deserve.

Shape and main statistics of Leipzig

Inevitably, when examining Leipzig's performance so far, we start from 0 in the Champions League standings: a 0 that is surprising and that is a hard blow for the self-esteem and for the consideration of a team that had carved out an important space for itself in Europe and that, for example, last year had made Real Madrid tremble in the Round of 16.

In any case, the latest success in the championship, 2-1 against Frankfurt, scored by Sesko and Openda (11 goals between them in the Bundesliga) is also decisive because it puts Leipzig back in the running and allows them to catch up with Frankfurt in third place.

Just like Bayern Munich, Marco Rose's team, with its record of 8 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, has a pace almost equal to that of the last year (only 2 points less) even if the number of goals scored in the Bundesliga is significantly lower than in 2023/2024 (23 this year against 34 last year).

Match prediction and tactical overview

The precedents of this challenge limited to the last two seasons, clearly say that for Bayern Munich, Leipzig is a very tough opponent: in the last 5 challenges overall there are in fact 2 wins for Leipzig, 2 draws and only 1 for Bayern, that of the last match in February 2024 which ended 2-1 and was resolved by a superb brace from Harry Kane (doubtful on Friday).

Leipzig's latest results, especially those in the Champions League, speak of a team that can score a lot but can also suffer a lot and, considering that Bayern also has top-notch offensive potential but also a few too many unavailabilities, the prediction of a match with more than two goals is the one preferred by the BetMines algorithm.

The prediction of the BetMines algorithm for the Bayern Munich - Leipzig match predicts Over 2.5 goals at 69%
The prediction of the BetMines algorithm for the Bayern Munich - Leipzig match predicts Under 2.5 goals at 31%

Probable formations of Bayern Munich - Leipzig

Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1): Peretz; Laimer, Upamecano, Kim, Guerreiro; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Musiala, Sané; Muller. All: Kompany.

Leipzig (3-4-1-2): Gulacsi; Seiwald, Orban, Geertruida; Henrichs, Kampl, Schlager, Nusa; Baumgartner; Sesko, Openda. All: Rose.