Matchday 4 of the 2025/26 Bundesliga kicks off with the Friday night opener on September 19 at the MHPArena, where Stuttgart and St. Pauli face off. The two sides have had opposite starts to the season so far. The hosts have collected just three points from their first three league games, thanks to a lone victory against Borussia Mönchengladbach: too little for a team aiming for a European spot, especially with their UEFA Europa Conference League debut against Celta Vigo coming up on Thursday, September 25. Stuttgart urgently needs to get back to winning ways to close in on sixth place, currently held by surprise package Hoffenheim. Another team making headlines is St. Pauli, who only narrowly escaped relegation last season but have started this campaign in style, sitting fourth in the table with seven points. Alexander Blessin’s men come into this clash off the back of two consecutive wins and are eager to keep the momentum going. A third victory would open up scenarios few would have imagined before the tournament began. This Friday night fixture promises intensity, with both sides determined to take all three points.

Stuttgart's recent form and key stats

On the last matchday, Stuttgart lost 3-1 away to Freiburg after leading for over an hour, suffering their second defeat in the opening three rounds. The Reds returned to losing ways after beating Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 before the international break, thanks to a late goal from Chema Andres.

Across their last five games in the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal and German Supercup, Stuttgart have averaged 1.6 goals scored andb. Sebastian Hoeness’s side has proven effective in attack, driven especially by Ermedin Demirović, but remain highly vulnerable at the back.

At home, Stuttgart are a team of extremes: in their last 15 Bundesliga home matches, they have not drawn once, collecting 7 wins and 8 defeats. Hoeness’s tasks include finding a more consistent home form while shoring up a fragile defense.

St. Pauli's recent form and key stats

On the last matchday, St. Pauli pulled off an impressive comeback, beating Augsburg 2-1 after going behind. Goals from Hountondji and Sinani, one in each half, sealed the win. Before the break, they also claimed a 2-0 away victory in the Hamburg derby thanks to goals from Dzwigala and the in-form Hountondji.

The Pirates have shown a strong attacking output in their opening three league games, scoring an average of 2.33 goals per match. However, their defensive record tells another story: they have conceded 1.33 goals per game so far.

Blessin’s men also travel well: they have lost just one of their last six away matches, with two wins and three draws. Including their first DFB-Pokal round against Norderstedt, St. Pauli remain unbeaten away from home this season without conceding a single goal.

Stuttgart vs St. Pauli prediction and tactical outlook

In the early rounds, both Stuttgart and St. Pauli have proven to be prolific in attack but shaky in defense.

Stuttgart have both scored and conceded in five of their last six games, while St. Pauli have done so in three of their last four. These stats guide the BetMines prediction toward “both teams to score” and Over 2.5 goals, expecting at least three goals in total.

Given the home side’s urgent need for victory, it is likely Hoeness’s men will start aggressively, looking to secure an early lead and manage their energy ahead of the Conference League debut. This approach, however, could favor St. Pauli’s counterattacking game plan.

Key players to watch for goals include Andreas Hountondji and Ermedin Demirović, both already on 3 goals this season.

• Stuttgart vs St. Pauli prediction by BetMines: both teams to score with 55% probability
  
  
• Stuttgart vs St. Pauli prediction by BetMines: at least one team fails to score with 45% probability

Probable lineups Stuttgart vs St. Pauli

STUTTGART (4-2-3-1): Nubel; Vagnoman, Jeltsch, Chabot, Mittelstadt; Karazor, Stiller; Bouanani, El Khannouss, Leweling; Demirovic. Coach: Sebastian Hoeness

ST. PAULI (3-4-1-2): Vasilj; Wahl, Smith, Dzwigala; Pyrka, Sands, Fujita, Oppie; Sinani; Hountondji, Lage. Coach: Alexander Blessin