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Prediction published on Feb 19, 2026 4:01 AM by Dario in Mexico - Liga MX | Modified on Feb 19, 2026 4:01 AM
The seventh round of the Clausura 2026 continues with an intriguing clash at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc, where Puebla host América. Both sides arrive with contrasting momentum and objectives, making this encounter a key moment in their respective campaigns. América sit in the upper half of the table but have struggled to find consistency in front of goal, while Puebla remain closer to the lower positions, looking to recover from a difficult start to the season.
Puebla currently occupy 13th place in Liga MX, with a record that reflects their inconsistency. They have managed just one win in their last five matches, alongside two draws and two defeats. Their most recent outing ended in a 2-3 loss against Pumas UNAM on February 14, a result that exposed their defensive fragility despite a spirited attacking effort. Over the course of the season, Puebla have recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 14 losses, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match.
In recent weeks, Puebla’s matches have tended to be low-scoring affairs, with under 0.5 total goals in two of their last ten league games. Their attack has struggled to maintain consistency, averaging less than one goal per match across their last five fixtures. However, playing at home could provide a much-needed boost, as they aim to exploit América’s occasional difficulties away from home.
Among the players to watch, defender Juan Pablo Vargas has been a key figure for Puebla, contributing one goal this season and earning recognition as part of the league’s team of the week on one occasion. His leadership at the back will be crucial if Puebla are to contain América’s attack and secure a positive result.
América enter this fixture sitting 10th in the standings, with two wins, two draws, and two defeats so far in the Clausura 2026. Their defensive record remains one of the best in the league, having conceded only three goals, but their offensive output has been underwhelming, with just three goals scored. The team’s recent form has been mixed: they lost 1-0 to Guadalajara in the national clásico on February 15 and have now gone two consecutive matches without scoring.
Across their last five games, América have registered two wins, one draw, and two defeats, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match. Their season-long record is far more impressive, with 13 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Despite their solid defensive structure, América’s inability to convert chances has become a concern, particularly in away fixtures where they have failed to win at half time in 19 of their last 20 league matches.
Midfielder Jonathan Dos Santos remains one of América’s most experienced players, having started four matches this season and provided one assist. His presence in midfield could be vital in dictating the tempo and helping the team rediscover their attacking rhythm after a series of goalless performances.
This fixture brings together two sides with contrasting strengths: Puebla’s resilience at home and América’s defensive solidity. Historically, América have dominated this matchup, winning four of the last five meetings, while Puebla have managed just one victory. The average scoreline between these teams has been 0.8 goals for Puebla and 1.8 for América, suggesting a narrow but consistent advantage for the visitors.
Given both teams’ recent scoring struggles, a tight contest is expected. Puebla will look to exploit América’s slow starts, especially since the visitors have rarely led at half time in recent away games. On the other hand, América’s disciplined defense could frustrate Puebla’s attack, forcing them to rely on set pieces or counterattacks to find the net.
Statistically, the match leans toward a low-scoring outcome. América’s last ten matches have all featured under 3.5 goals, while Puebla’s offensive numbers remain modest. However, both teams are under pressure to secure points, which could open up the game in the second half.
According to the data, the win probabilities stand at Puebla 21%, Draw 24%, and América 54%. The likelihood of Both Teams To Score – Yes is 49%, while Over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance. These figures suggest a balanced encounter with América slightly favored to take all three points.
Puebla vs América prediction from BetMines: América win (2) with 54% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Puebla
América
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
3
7
4
6
2.5
4
6
7
3
3.5
7
3
8
2
4.5
9
1
8
2