The second leg of the UEFA Conference League round of 16 brings together Raków Częstochowa and Fiorentina in what promises to be a tense and decisive encounter. The Italian side travels to Poland with a narrow 2-1 advantage from the first leg, but the tie remains wide open. Both teams have shown contrasting forms in recent weeks, and with a place in the quarter-finals at stake, every detail could make the difference.

Raków Częstochowa’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Raków Częstochowa approach this decisive match looking to overturn their one-goal deficit. Despite losing 3-1 to Górnik Zabrze in their most recent domestic fixture, the Polish side have been strong at home throughout the season. In the Europa Conference League, they have recorded an impressive campaign so far with 9 wins, 2 draws, and only 2 defeats, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match.

At home, Raków have been particularly resilient, losing only twice in their last 14 matches and winning nine of them. They have also maintained a remarkable record of not being behind at half time in their last 13 Conference League games. This consistency has made them one of the toughest teams to beat in the competition, especially on home soil. The team’s defensive discipline and ability to control the first half could once again be crucial in their attempt to overturn the deficit.

• Ranking in Europa Conference League: 2nd


• Last 5 matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats


• Average goals scored: 1.6 | Average goals conceded: 2.0


• Haven’t lost at half time in their last 13 Conference League matches


• Under 0.5 total goals in 2 of their last 10 matches

Raków’s challenge will be to rediscover their attacking sharpness while maintaining the defensive solidity that has characterized their European campaign. Their home record in the competition — four consecutive wins and two clean sheets in three group-stage games — suggests they are capable of producing another strong performance in front of their supporters.

Fiorentina’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Fiorentina arrive in Poland with a narrow advantage but know that the job is far from done. The Italians showed character in the first leg, coming from behind to win 2-1 and hand Raków their first defeat of the tournament. However, their European form has been inconsistent, with 7 wins and 4 defeats in the Conference League this season, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.

Domestically, Fiorentina warmed up for this clash with a convincing 4-1 victory over Cremonese, extending their unbeaten run to three matches. Still, their away record in Europe raises concerns — they have lost three of their last five Conference League games, and in two of those defeats, they failed to score. This inconsistency on the road could be a key factor in determining whether they can hold onto their aggregate lead.

• Ranking in Europa Conference League: 1st


• Last 5 matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats


• Average goals scored: 1.2 | Average goals conceded: 1.6


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half in their last 16 away matches


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half in 23 of their last 25 Conference League matches

Fiorentina’s attacking potential remains strong, especially in the second half of matches, where they tend to find their rhythm. However, their defensive lapses away from home could give Raków the opportunity they need to turn the tie around. The Italians will need to balance their attacking intent with caution, as conceding early could shift the momentum entirely.

Raków Częstochowa vs Fiorentina Tactical Overview

This second leg is finely poised between two teams with contrasting strengths. Raków Częstochowa will rely on their home advantage, defensive organization, and ability to control the tempo early on. Their record of not trailing at half time in 13 consecutive Conference League matches highlights their tactical discipline and compact structure.

Fiorentina, on the other hand, will look to exploit their experience and attacking quality, particularly in the later stages of the game. Their tendency to score in the second half could once again prove decisive. However, their vulnerability away from home — with three defeats in their last five European trips — suggests that they cannot afford to sit back and defend their lead for too long.

Both teams have shown they can score, and with the first leg producing three goals, another open contest could be on the cards. The Polish side’s need to attack from the start may create spaces for Fiorentina to counter, making this a potentially high-intensity encounter with plenty of goal-scoring opportunities.

Raków Częstochowa vs Fiorentina Prediction

Considering the data and recent performances, this clash appears balanced but slightly tilted towards the home side’s momentum. Raków Częstochowa have been formidable at home in the Conference League, while Fiorentina’s away form remains inconsistent. The Polish side’s defensive resilience and strong first-half record could give them the platform to push for a comeback.

BetMines prediction: Raków Częstochowa win (1) with a probability of 44%. The draw (X) stands at 25%, while a Fiorentina win (2) is estimated at 31%. Given both teams’ attacking tendencies, the Both Teams To Score – Yes market (55%) and Over 2.5 goals (55%) also appear likely outcomes for this decisive second leg.