Raków Częstochowa welcome Hajduk Split on Thursday, August 27, for the second leg of their 2026-27 Europa Conference League play-off. Kick-off is scheduled for 17:00 local time at Stadion Raków in Częstochowa. The tie remains finely balanced after a dramatic 2-2 draw on August 20, when Lamine Diaby-Fadiga scored deep into stoppage time to rescue Raków. With four goals already shared between the teams, both sides enter the return fixture knowing that there is still everything to play for. Raków have been reliable in front of goal despite inconsistent recent results, while Hajduk arrive unbeaten in six matches and fresh from a convincing domestic victory.

Raków Częstochowa Recent Form and Key Statistics

Raków Częstochowa have recorded one win, two draws and two defeats across their last five matches. During that period, they have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per game, numbers that reflect a mixed sequence rather than sustained control. Nevertheless, their attacking record across the wider competitive schedule has been more dependable: Raków have scored in seven of their eight competitive fixtures this season.

The home side have also finished with between one and two goals in four of their last five outings. That consistency was visible in the first leg, where they found the net twice away from home and recovered a draw through Diaby-Fadiga’s late intervention. Although recent results have fluctuated, Raków have continued to create enough end product to remain dangerous in this decisive return meeting.

Their Europa Conference League campaign provides further encouragement. Raków have collected three wins and two draws without a defeat in the competition, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per match and conceding only 0.6. Those figures are stronger than their overall last-five record and underline how effective they have been in this tournament.

Another notable trend concerns the period after the interval. There has been at least one second-half goal in 23 of Raków Częstochowa’s last 25 matches. As a result, the contest may remain open deep into the game even if the early stages are cautious. The first leg already demonstrated Raków’s ability to influence the score late, and the frequency of second-half goals in their matches is an important feature of this preview.

Hajduk Split Recent Form and Key Statistics

Hajduk Split travel to Poland in strong form, having avoided defeat in each of their last six matches. Their latest result was a 4-0 win over Osijek on August 23, extending a positive run and providing an emphatic response after the 2-2 first-leg draw. Across their most recent five games, Hajduk have registered three victories and two draws, averaging an impressive 2.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.

The visitors have also performed well in the Europa Conference League, where their record stands at two wins and one draw. They have averaged 3.7 goals per game in the competition while conceding 1.3. That attacking production indicates that Hajduk possess the scoring form required to threaten again after striking twice in the opening meeting.

However, their defensive numbers leave room for Raków to make an impact. Hajduk have conceded in six of their last eight matches and have failed to keep a clean sheet in all five of their competitive away fixtures this season. Their inability to shut opponents out on the road is particularly relevant against a Raków team that has scored in seven of eight competitive games.

Goal-related trends also follow Hajduk into this fixture. Each of their last 15 matches has produced over 1.5 total goals, while all of their previous 12 games have featured at least one goal in the second half. In addition, Hajduk have not been behind at half-time in 20 of their last 22 matches. These statistics suggest that the visitors have regularly remained competitive before the break, with their games continuing to produce decisive action later on.

Raków Częstochowa vs Hajduk Split Match Analysis

The 2-2 result in Croatia provides the clearest reference point for this second leg. Neither team managed to establish a lasting advantage, and Raków’s stoppage-time equaliser ensured that the return match begins with the tie level. The available win probabilities reinforce that balance: Raków Częstochowa are rated at 37%, the draw at 26%, and Hajduk Split at 37%.

Home advantage may help Raków, but their recent sequence of one win in five prevents a straightforward conclusion in the result market. Their Conference League form is more convincing, with five unbeaten matches and a low average of 0.6 goals conceded. Hajduk, meanwhile, bring greater momentum through three wins and two draws in their last five, as well as the confidence generated by scoring four times against Osijek.

The goal markets are supported by several overlapping trends. Raków have scored in seven of eight competitive fixtures, Hajduk have conceded in every competitive away game this season, and the first leg contained four goals. At the other end, Hajduk have averaged 2.8 goals across their last five matches and scored twice against Raków on August 20. The probability of both teams scoring is listed at 53%, while over 2.5 goals is assessed at 51%, showing only a narrow statistical preference in those markets.

A broader goals threshold offers a more coherent reading of the available evidence. Hajduk’s last 15 matches have all gone beyond 1.5 total goals, and their Europa Conference League games have featured high scoring averages. Raków’s competition average of 2.0 goals scored also supports the possibility of multiple goals. Furthermore, the repeated second-half scoring trends for both clubs mean that the match can still move beyond one total goal even if the first half is closely contested.

Raków Częstochowa vs Hajduk Split prediction from BetMines: Over 1.5 goals with 74% probability.