Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction: Preview and Analysis of the Match | Champions League

On Wednesday, April 16, at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, Real Madrid will fight for their European future as they host Arsenal in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals. Carlo Ancelotti’s side must overturn a 3-0 first-leg defeat at the Emirates Stadium, which means they need to win by at least three goals to qualify directly for the semi-finals. The first leg was a nightmare for the Spanish giants, and if not for goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, the scoreline could have been even worse. To stand a chance, Real Madrid must deliver a completely different performance, particularly up front. Although Madrid’s attacking trio is full of potential, their form is currently a concern. Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo have lost some of their early-season spark, while Kylian Mbappe, after being sent off for a reckless challenge in their recent La Liga match against Alaves, is showing signs of frustration. On the other hand, Arsenal come into the second leg with a commanding advantage, but manager Mikel Arteta knows that considering the tie already won would be a major mistake. The Gunners will need to resist the temptation to sit back and defend, aiming instead to exploit the spaces Madrid often leaves at the back. A single goal could be the final blow to Madrid’s Champions League hopes. With so much at stake and two world-class teams facing off, this quarter-final clash promises to be one of the most entertaining matches of this European midweek.

Real Madrid's Recent Form and Key Stats

Despite a 0-1 win against Alaves in La Liga last weekend, Real Madrid are not in top form. Over their last 5 matches in all competitions, Los Blancos have picked up only 2 wins (one in extra time in the Copa del Rey against Real Sociedad) and suffered 3 defeats. They’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored per game while conceding 2.2 goals per game—a worrying trend for a team chasing a comeback.

In the 2024/25 Champions League, Real Madrid have recorded 8 wins and 5 defeats, scoring 28 goals and conceding 20 (averages of 2.15 and 1.54 per game respectively). At the Bernabeu, they’ve only lost once in their last 18 Champions League games—a 1-3 defeat to AC Milan on November 5.

A key absence for this crucial second leg will be Eduardo Camavinga, suspended due to yellow card accumulation.

Arsenal's Recent Form and Key Stats

Arsenal are enjoying an excellent run, going 9 games unbeaten in all competitions, with 4 wins and 5 draws. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw away at Brentford in the Premier League. Impressively, Arsenal have scored first in each of their last 6 matches, demonstrating their proactive approach.

In Europe, the Gunners have had a relatively smooth campaign. After finishing third in the new single-league group stage with 19 points (6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), they went on to dominate PSV 9-3 on aggregate in the round of 16. Defensively, Arsenal have conceded just 6 goals in the entire Champions League run, while averaging 2.55 goals scored per game.

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction & Tactical Preview

The Real Madrid vs Arsenal prediction suggests an open and intense encounter. Madrid will be forced to push forward aggressively from the very beginning in search of an early goal that could reignite the tie. Arsenal’s priority will be to absorb the initial pressure and then hit on the counter-attack, making the most of the space Real Madrid will inevitably leave behind.

Historically, Arsenal have the upper hand in this fixture, having never lost or conceded a goal in their previous three Champions League meetings with Real Madrid. However, given both teams’ recent trends, a goal-filled match looks likely: 5 of Real Madrid’s last 6 games have seen over 2.5 total goals, while Arsenal have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.

For these reasons, the BetMines Algorithm prediction for Real Madrid vs Arsenal, as well as seeing the hosts slightly favoured to win, predicts a match with more than 2.5 goals. 

• The BetMines Algorithm prediction for Real Madrid vs Arsenal predicts Over 2.5 goals at 62%.
• The BetMines Algorithm prediction for Real Madrid vs Arsenal predicts Under 2.5 goals at 38%. 

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Alaba; Tchouameni, Modric; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Jr; Mbappe. Manager: Carlo Ancelotti

Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Saka, Merino, Martinelli. 
Manager: Mikel Arteta